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Nate Silver arguably lost a good deal of "prediction calibration points" by placing a very low chance on Trump getting the nomination in the first place.
by vintermann 10y ago
Nate Silver arguably lost a good deal of "prediction calibration points" by placing a very low chance on Trump getting the nomination in the first place.
- 1812calif 10y agoNot at all. A low probabilty does not make the prediction invalid because of the result.
- Sacho 10y agoAnd wouldn't the same be true if Trump wins the election? After all, Nate Silver isn't predicting a 0% chance for Trump to win, I think last time I checked it was 10-15%.
- vintermann 10y agoWell, that's not what I said either.