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538 didn't give any predictions on the primaries. Yes, they wrote articles saying that he had no chance, but those are separate from their statistical predicti
by matt4077 10y ago
538 didn't give any predictions on the primaries. Yes, they wrote articles saying that he had no chance, but those are separate from their statistical predictions.
And, regarding the volatility: the probabilities reported by 538 are closely linked to betting/prediction markets. Anyone with a better model could parlay into money quite easily.
- tiatia 10y ago"538 didn't give any predictions on the primaries." They gave predictions for every state during the primaries. Also see: https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/19/nate-silvers-self-serving-confession-reflections-on-being-wrong/ https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/19/nate-silvers-self-serving-co...