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It adds up pretty quickly. For 2008 and 2012 combined, he only got one state wrong. Say there are 10 swing states close to 50/50 chances, and all others are fix
by matt4077 10y ago
It adds up pretty quickly. For 2008 and 2012 combined, he only got one state wrong. Say there are 10 swing states close to 50/50 chances, and all others are fixed. The chance of getting them all right, twice, are 0.5^(2*10) = 0.000000953674316.
(that's actually not the best method to evaluate him, because he provides estimates of chances and could be better evaluated with something like the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score that checks for calibration as well, but it's more intuitive).
- gozur88 10y agoThere aren't ten swing states. It's probably closer to half that. And they aren't 50/50 either. I got 49 right the last election just by looking at the public polls in the days leading up to the vote.