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> but you'd think that this would be an obvious one for them to break since it is ostensibly their specialty. Silver's already touched on this poll and its unu
by jocro 10y ago
> but you'd think that this would be an obvious one for them to break since it is ostensibly their specialty.
Silver's already touched on this poll and its unusual methodology:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-th...
He didn't get scooped; explaining the technical details isn't his ostensible specialty, adjusting for them is.
- firebones 10y agoGood point. Although I think Cohn's speciality is more valuable to me here. I came away from the Silver piece when I first read it with the problem merely being a fixed population of voters; the Cohn piece was much more illuminating since it showed the specifics of how that pre-condition has been affecting all kinds of aggregation methods. So Silver was the early warning, but Cohn had the nitty-gritty. I'm just used to Silver providing that--they seem spread pretty thin. As you point out, you have to specialize in something, though...
- ianai 10y agoAnd so what if he were to be scooped? No ones all knowing.