4 ms·
His name is Nate Silver. Don't be obnoxious. 538 didn't fail to read data properly re Trump's nomination. Trump was a new phenomenon with no history to build a
by hilop 10y ago
His name is Nate Silver. Don't be obnoxious.
538 didn't fail to read data properly re Trump's nomination. Trump was a new phenomenon with no history to build a model from. 538's mistake was guessing instead of admitting they had insufficient data -- which is bad behavior, but not because their preferred methodology is bad.
- cwyers 10y agoBull. Their polling based model performed okay (although, at least through Super Tuesday when I looked at it, his polls-plus model didn't outperform his polls-only model, and neither significantly outperformed the RCP weighted average of polls). What failed during the primaries was Nate's "Party Decides" punditry.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- fulldecent 10y agoLTCM failed too because they did not consider confidence intervals on its models.