3 ms·
Sadly the first circle is not self-reinforcing (and, sadly, the second cycle is entirely accurate). Instead, in the 'good exurban schools' case, the evolution
by niftich 10y ago
Sadly the first circle is not self-reinforcing (and, sadly, the second cycle is entirely accurate).
Instead, in the 'good exurban schools' case, the evolution usually goes:
1. Rural, periphery area attracts affluent folks seeking bigger houses on cheaper land. High-end residential subdivisions are developed.
2. Increased tax revenue allows for good schools, nice government amenities.
3. Good schools attract additional residents. Residential population swells, commercial and industrial population remains low.
4. Residential brings fewer tax dollars per infrastructure cost than commercial or industrial. At some point, municipal costs (roads, sewer, fire, schools) begin to approach revenue. Services are cut. Schools decline, making residents eligible to contemplate moving to another area in step #1 or step #3. Those who can't afford to move to a newer area stay; they are thus on average lower-income than those who left. At this point, there is a danger of falling into the second cycle.
- ryandrake 10y agoMaybe my thinking is clouded by Bay Area particularities, then. Here, when a school gets good, housing prices simply go up. Areas stay ultra-rich, and schools stay ultra-good. Look at Cupertino, Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Atherton, Belmont, Portola Valley. Are these areas ever going to cost more than their taxpayers can fund?
- niftich 10y agoBay Area towns aren't exurban periphery and aren't low on commercial and industrial jobs. Atherton is obviously buoyed solely by the residents' wealth, but the rest of them are mixed-use areas. Furthermore, the Bay Area concentrates more wealth than your average US metropolitan area. The evolution I laid out can be most readily observed in places where urban areas are not hemmed-in geographically, and easy access to cheaper undeveloped land exists, so new exurban nodes can be readily created. Right now, Northern Virginia (DC suburbs), Atlanta, Raleigh, Dallas, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Kansas City, and Minneapolis are experiencing this in their urban areas. California yet again a special case because exurban areas are usually much, much further away than elsewhere (Santa Clarita, Temecula, Palmdale -> LA; Santa Rosa, Fairfield, Tracy -> SF/SJ).
- ryandrake 10y agoThen, yea, your examples are outside of those two cycles--to be fair I didn't say the ones I listed were the only two possible chains. When I think of "good schools" though, I don't think of "temporary wealth" exurbs where accountants are buying McMansions. I'm thinking of schools that feed into the Ivy League and fiercely compete with elite private schools that also feed the Ivies.