TL/DR: After 900 words, he realizes the question is when machines can exceed human intelligence. Then, he concludes that there's no way it can happen in 40-50

TL/DR: After 900 words, he realizes the question is when machines can exceed human intelligence. Then, he concludes that there's no way it can happen in 40-50 years[1], based on, apparently, the opinion of a couple other economists. > Perhaps automation will be qualitatively different ... because robots will have a cognitive function... > But the million dollar question is whether this change in substitutability will occur, and if so, how fast... > Perhaps in the distant future robots might displace large swathes of human labour. But unless there are rapid advances in medicine or time travel, I fear I won’t be there to see it… [1] looking at his CV he appears to be 40ish, that's where I get an implied 40-50 year time horizon http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/researchers/johnlewiscv.pdf http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/researcher...