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First off, their sample size (6,000) is pretty small to be generalizing to all Americans. Second, if 63% of these freelancers (which is pretty loosely defined

First off, their sample size (6,000) is pretty small to be generalizing to all Americans. Second, if 63% of these freelancers (which is pretty loosely defined in their survey) say they are freelancing voluntarily, that means 37% would rather have a normal full-time job. So 13% of total people in the "workforce" are forced to freelance and are likely underemployed as a result. That's not exactly indicative of the healthy job market the BLS likes to claim we have.

HillaryBriss 10y ago
Sample sizes determining the proportion of voters supporting a presidential candidate in a US election are generally even smaller ( < 3000 ). But that's still large enough to predict an election with decent accuracy. http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-decide-the-sample-size-when-polling-a-large-population http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-deci... http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm
objclxt 10y ago
> their sample size (6,000) is pretty small to be generalizing to all Americans Not really. It has been a while since I took a statistics class, but a sample size of around 4,00 will give you a 99% confidence rating for the entire US population with a 2% margin of error [1]. Of course, you need to pick the participants correctly, but the size alone is more than enough to generalize to the entire population. I would be more suspicious of the fact the survey was run by the Freelancers Union and Upwork, two organizations who directly benefit from more freelancers. So it's somewhat in their best interests to get a high result. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination and https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/ https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/
- mdorazio 10y ago
  I'm aware of sample size determination, but minimum sample sizes typically assume random sampling over the target population. All their sampling methodology slide says is that it was an online survey of adults who have done some paid work in the last 12 months, and they did some weighting to match BLS stats. We have no idea how they found the participants or controlled for bias in the selection process.
  - markcampbell 10y ago
    This is a very important aspect of the study. They did not do a true randomized survey as participants were self-selecting (online surveys have this inherently -- well, mostly).
    - dredmorbius 10y ago
      It's not clear that this was or wasn't a self-selecting sample. The article does state that the surveying was conducted online: In the research, more than 6,000 U.S. working adults over the age of 18 were surveyed online by independent research firm Edelman Intelligence between July 29 — August 24, 2016. Among them, 2,049 were freelancers and 3,953 were non-freelancers. The survey defined freelancers as individuals who have engaged in supplemental, temporary, project- or contract-based work within the past 12 months.
  - dredmorbius 10y ago
    Sampling error or bias is a hugely more significant factor than sample size. Once you're over 60 - 300 survey participants, you're well within large-number stats territory. If you're trying to estimate multiple points of freedom, you might have to increase your sample size. Simply drawing a larger sample of a biased sampling methodology isn't going to solve any problems. You'd have to aggressively correct for errors. The survey here was conducted by a firm dedicated to such work (a positive sign), but it's attached to a large public-relations firm (Edelman), which I consider a very strong negative. It isn't a disinterested research organisation or dedicated polling firm such as Pew or Harris. Edelman's other clients include Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, HP, and Samsung. Quite the list of rusted stars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edelman_(firm) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edelman_(firm)
  - jomamaxx 10y ago
    The sample size is just fine, actually, it's very large. The issue is randomness. If it's a random sample, it's very large. If it's not a random sample, it's worthless. "We have no idea how they found the participants or controlled for bias in the selection process." A) This has nothing to do with sample size B) If they have any credibility whatsoever, they hopefully know what they are doing. Adjusting is a statistically legit thing to do, they do it in political polling (and in hindsight) it works. But yes - with 'online surveys', it's hard.
zelon88 10y ago
Seriously. I wouldn't freelance if I could support my home and my family on a 40 hour salary.
- aianus 10y ago
  But would you get a salary if you could support your home and family on a 36h freelance?
  - djrogers 10y ago
    The survey included 'supplemental' work as freelancing, so it's not a binary choice here...
    - noobermin 10y ago
      The average worker in the survey worked 36 hours...
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
cableshaft 10y ago
An article that mentions a study. Comment claiming the sample size is too small. A horde of Statistics 101 graduates get in a tizzy and have to explain why the sample size isn't actually too small in reality. People argue back and forth about sample sizes. Discussion about the article itself gets massively derailed. Rinse, wash, repeat. Sorry, it's just become so common I expect it every time there's an article about semi-controversial study and I almost always see it.
- dredmorbius 10y ago
  Downvoting the sample-size critics would help somewhat. This thread's at least moved down off the top of the discussion.

HillaryBriss 10y ago

Sample sizes determining the proportion of voters supporting a presidential candidate in a US election are generally even smaller ( < 3000 ). But that's still large enough to predict an election with decent accuracy. http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-decide-the-sample-size-when-polling-a-large-population http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/166/how-do-you-deci... http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm http://www.pollingreport.com/ncpp.htm

objclxt 10y ago

> their sample size (6,000) is pretty small to be generalizing to all Americans Not really. It has been a while since I took a statistics class, but a sample size of around 4,00 will give you a 99% confidence rating for the entire US population with a 2% margin of error [1]. Of course, you need to pick the participants correctly, but the size alone is more than enough to generalize to the entire population. I would be more suspicious of the fact the survey was run by the Freelancers Union and Upwork, two organizations who directly benefit from more freelancers. So it's somewhat in their best interests to get a high result. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination and https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/ https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/

mdorazio 10y ago
I'm aware of sample size determination, but minimum sample sizes typically assume random sampling over the target population. All their sampling methodology slide says is that it was an online survey of adults who have done some paid work in the last 12 months, and they did some weighting to match BLS stats. We have no idea how they found the participants or controlled for bias in the selection process.
- markcampbell 10y ago
  This is a very important aspect of the study. They did not do a true randomized survey as participants were self-selecting (online surveys have this inherently -- well, mostly).
  - dredmorbius 10y ago
    It's not clear that this was or wasn't a self-selecting sample. The article does state that the surveying was conducted online: In the research, more than 6,000 U.S. working adults over the age of 18 were surveyed online by independent research firm Edelman Intelligence between July 29 — August 24, 2016. Among them, 2,049 were freelancers and 3,953 were non-freelancers. The survey defined freelancers as individuals who have engaged in supplemental, temporary, project- or contract-based work within the past 12 months.
- dredmorbius 10y ago
  Sampling error or bias is a hugely more significant factor than sample size. Once you're over 60 - 300 survey participants, you're well within large-number stats territory. If you're trying to estimate multiple points of freedom, you might have to increase your sample size. Simply drawing a larger sample of a biased sampling methodology isn't going to solve any problems. You'd have to aggressively correct for errors. The survey here was conducted by a firm dedicated to such work (a positive sign), but it's attached to a large public-relations firm (Edelman), which I consider a very strong negative. It isn't a disinterested research organisation or dedicated polling firm such as Pew or Harris. Edelman's other clients include Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, HP, and Samsung. Quite the list of rusted stars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edelman_(firm) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edelman_(firm)
- jomamaxx 10y ago
  The sample size is just fine, actually, it's very large. The issue is randomness. If it's a random sample, it's very large. If it's not a random sample, it's worthless. "We have no idea how they found the participants or controlled for bias in the selection process." A) This has nothing to do with sample size B) If they have any credibility whatsoever, they hopefully know what they are doing. Adjusting is a statistically legit thing to do, they do it in political polling (and in hindsight) it works. But yes - with 'online surveys', it's hard.

zelon88 10y ago

Seriously. I wouldn't freelance if I could support my home and my family on a 40 hour salary.

aianus 10y ago
But would you get a salary if you could support your home and family on a 36h freelance?
- djrogers 10y ago
  The survey included 'supplemental' work as freelancing, so it's not a binary choice here...
  - noobermin 10y ago
    The average worker in the survey worked 36 hours...

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

cableshaft 10y ago

An article that mentions a study. Comment claiming the sample size is too small. A horde of Statistics 101 graduates get in a tizzy and have to explain why the sample size isn't actually too small in reality. People argue back and forth about sample sizes. Discussion about the article itself gets massively derailed. Rinse, wash, repeat. Sorry, it's just become so common I expect it every time there's an article about semi-controversial study and I almost always see it.

dredmorbius 10y ago
Downvoting the sample-size critics would help somewhat. This thread's at least moved down off the top of the discussion.