3 ms·
> but there was a lot of low-hanging fruit in photolithographic precision, there for us to pluck, and pluck, and pluck, year after year. As i grow older i find
by digi_owl 10y ago
> but there was a lot of low-hanging fruit in photolithographic precision, there for us to pluck, and pluck, and pluck, year after year.
As i grow older i find myself recognizing similar trends in a number of fields. You have a initial slow takeoff period where basic science has to be figured out. Then you have a steep climb as that science unlocks a bunch of iterative refinements on the concept. And then you find yourself at a plateau as new iterations become expensive and complex.
- fooker 10y agoI think this will hold true for the current interest around ML. We are already at a stage where we can not reliably 'debug' models. And feeding more data in the pipeline seems to exhibit diminishing returns.
- Ericson2314 10y agoI someone I forgot said, everything supoosedly exponential is really sigmoidal.
- bendykstra 10y agoSaul Griffith[1]. There's also Herbert Stein's Law: Trends that can't continue, won't. [1] http://radar.oreilly.com/2007/11/its-not-exponential-its-sigmoi.html http://radar.oreilly.com/2007/11/its-not-exponential-its-sig...
- dredmorbius 10y agoHistories of technology are fascinating. I've been reading Vaclav Smil. His log and semilog plots tell stories.