There are essentially four scenarios - you make the "safe" choice and succeed, and you're smart - if you fail, well, you can't be blamed, the safe choice is con

There are essentially four scenarios - you make the "safe" choice and succeed, and you're smart - if you fail, well, you can't be blamed, the safe choice is conventional wisdom. You make the risky/bold/nonconventional choice and succeed, and you're lucky - fail, well, you're an idiot who should've seen it coming.