4 ms·

There are three superpower poles in the world. 1. The United States, as the primary hegemon. 2. Russia, which is still powerful but in 'wane' after containmen

There are three superpower poles in the world. 1. The United States, as the primary hegemon. 2. Russia, which is still powerful but in 'wane' after containment and the costs of the Cold War. 3. China, the preliminary rising power on the world stage. These three powers have found cybertreaties between China and the US and China and Russia. But Russia and the United States have not yet found a good framework for cyberagreement. Is there a candidate or administration today in the United States that considers finding a cyber treaty between the US and Russia a priority? It seems to me, based on the past few decades of cyber war and the conversations and priorities inside of the beltway that the US considers it's cyberwar activities against the Russians more important than a cyber arms armistice. Given the US's superiority in cyberwarfare, total as it may not be, this recent surge in Russian modernization and activity looks a little bit like "complaining" and less like "moral acumen". The United States should consider drawing up stronger garuntees for Russia about it's cyberweaponization. Handled correctly, the results from superpower agreements could percolate down to Middle Powers, regional powers and third world nations to become a basis for global cyber norms and eventually a basis for international law. It seems to me that complaining and upping the ante, while it might theoretically lead to "peace through conquer", will work to undo any concept of cyber norms or international law.

grandalf 10y ago
This comment seems to assume you think Russia was responsible for the hacks/leaks... ?
- jwtadvice 10y ago
  I think the comment makes sense on its own, as it is a response not specifically about the specific recent accusations, but about the trends in both American and Russian cyberproliferation. I don't think the comment assumes that Russia was responsible for these specific hacks/leaks. I think it makes sense either way.
  - grandalf 10y ago
    > I don't think the comment assumes that Russia was responsible for these specific hacks/leaks. I think it makes sense either way. Well, it does make sense as is, but I'm glad you clarified that it isn't intended to entail that you are convinced of the origin of the hacks/leaks.
idlewords 10y ago
You forgot Poland!
branchless 10y ago
Not your core point but I'd take issue with the usa being a hegemony. Hegemonies lead. Great powers walk behind you holding a gun to your back. Is the usa not a great power?
linkregister 10y ago
Each power has its own norms for network exploitation operations, and thinks their own model is the only "right" one. 1. United States, FVEY, Germany model: exfiltrate the maximum amount of information from foreign governments and an expedient amount of information from SOEs to satisfy unlimited desire of information by decision makers in government. Occasionally throw a bone to domestic business but only via government trade negotiators. Perform offensive actions only in warfare or warfare-like situations. Leave coups, election manipulation, etc to HUMINT and military action only. 2. China (pre-2016) model: exfiltrate the maximum amount of information from companies and an expedient amount of information from foreign governments, to provide commercial information to satisfy unlimited desire of information by domestic businesses and SOEs and to satisfy limited desire of information by decision makers in government. 3. China (2016) model (ostensibly with the new treaty): exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from foreign governments. 4. France model: exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from companies and foreign governments to satisfy desire of information by domestic businesses and decision makers in government. 5. Russia (pre-2016) model: exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from foreign governments. Perform offensive actions only in warfare or warfare-like situations. 6. Russia (2016) model: exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from foreign governments. Perform destructive actions only in warfare or warfare-like situations. Perform election manipulation via network exploitation in addition to HUMINT and military action! I think the "complaining" is an apt description of what's going on. However, complaining is a legitimate reaction to having one's elections tampered with. Iran has a legitimate complaint to the US's meddling in its affairs in the 1950s. Pres. Obama clearly sees a cyber treaty as a priority, as the US is in the process of negotiations with China. Russia should follow. I agree that complaining by itself isn't productive. Escalation would also be bad. Norms established by treaties appear to be the only effective method. It mostly put an end to the great powers using chemical weapons.
- jwtadvice 10y ago
  Pretty neat attempt at a summary. I feel you've understated the US investment in manipulating elections. Sentry Eagle's feeding information into HUMINT isn't without a commitment within HUMINT and CIA to work in the psychological and political domains. I'm not sure I feel that your list is a list of the norms that each have put forward to establish. The US is closer to a representation of their proposed norms. The others are closer to a description of operations/dossiers. It would be very interesting to read a report on proposed norms next to dossiers and strategic incentives for each country. We fully agree that norms established by treaties is a nice path forward.
d0mine 10y ago
Russia is a convenient boogeyman but to call it a cyber superpower is laughable. Who controls the manufacturing? Who tapped in all the internet cables? Who has the power to get any info they like from technology giants such as google, microsoft? Who can turn any phone, webcam, microphone into a surveillance device? Who has their fingers from the lowest hardware layer up through the whole software stack?
- jwtadvice 10y ago
  I called Russia a superpower, not a "cyber superpower". I freely admit that the US has outpaced Russia, indeed much of the rest of the world, in cyberwarfare.
  - d0mine 10y ago
    What metric do you use to call Russia a superpower? Saudi Arabia has larger military budget than Russia. And compared to US, it is not even in the same order of magnitude.
    - woodandsteel 10y ago
      Well, Russia has about 5 times as many military personal, plus about 2,000 nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.
      - d0mine 10y ago
        Again, Russia won't even get a bronze medal by the "active military" metric. Unless you would call North Korea a superpower too; it is the poor metric. I give you nuclear weapons. Only US has more nuclear weapons. But does it matter in the real world? https://youtu.be/1Y1ya-yF35g https://youtu.be/1Y1ya-yF35g (imagine what happens in Russia that has military budget 10 times less than US and no less corruption). Though I still don't understand the logic: Russia has nuclear weapons and therefore it is a superpower compared to US and China? (non-existent political power, isolated, under economic sanctions--what the word "superpower" even means in that case). I understand something has to justify an enormous US military budget--if you don't have real threats; you have to invent them. It wouldn't be unusual that a war were started under false pretences anyway. (if a presidential candidate can laugh while talking about the rape of a 12-year-old girl; she wouldn't even blink before launching the next war https://youtu.be/e2f13f2awK4 https://youtu.be/e2f13f2awK4 )

grandalf 10y ago

This comment seems to assume you think Russia was responsible for the hacks/leaks... ?

jwtadvice 10y ago
I think the comment makes sense on its own, as it is a response not specifically about the specific recent accusations, but about the trends in both American and Russian cyberproliferation. I don't think the comment assumes that Russia was responsible for these specific hacks/leaks. I think it makes sense either way.
- grandalf 10y ago
  > I don't think the comment assumes that Russia was responsible for these specific hacks/leaks. I think it makes sense either way. Well, it does make sense as is, but I'm glad you clarified that it isn't intended to entail that you are convinced of the origin of the hacks/leaks.

idlewords 10y ago

You forgot Poland!

branchless 10y ago

Not your core point but I'd take issue with the usa being a hegemony. Hegemonies lead. Great powers walk behind you holding a gun to your back. Is the usa not a great power?

linkregister 10y ago

Each power has its own norms for network exploitation operations, and thinks their own model is the only "right" one. 1. United States, FVEY, Germany model: exfiltrate the maximum amount of information from foreign governments and an expedient amount of information from SOEs to satisfy unlimited desire of information by decision makers in government. Occasionally throw a bone to domestic business but only via government trade negotiators. Perform offensive actions only in warfare or warfare-like situations. Leave coups, election manipulation, etc to HUMINT and military action only. 2. China (pre-2016) model: exfiltrate the maximum amount of information from companies and an expedient amount of information from foreign governments, to provide commercial information to satisfy unlimited desire of information by domestic businesses and SOEs and to satisfy limited desire of information by decision makers in government. 3. China (2016) model (ostensibly with the new treaty): exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from foreign governments. 4. France model: exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from companies and foreign governments to satisfy desire of information by domestic businesses and decision makers in government. 5. Russia (pre-2016) model: exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from foreign governments. Perform offensive actions only in warfare or warfare-like situations. 6. Russia (2016) model: exfiltrate an expedient amount of information from foreign governments. Perform destructive actions only in warfare or warfare-like situations. Perform election manipulation via network exploitation in addition to HUMINT and military action! I think the "complaining" is an apt description of what's going on. However, complaining is a legitimate reaction to having one's elections tampered with. Iran has a legitimate complaint to the US's meddling in its affairs in the 1950s. Pres. Obama clearly sees a cyber treaty as a priority, as the US is in the process of negotiations with China. Russia should follow. I agree that complaining by itself isn't productive. Escalation would also be bad. Norms established by treaties appear to be the only effective method. It mostly put an end to the great powers using chemical weapons.

jwtadvice 10y ago
Pretty neat attempt at a summary. I feel you've understated the US investment in manipulating elections. Sentry Eagle's feeding information into HUMINT isn't without a commitment within HUMINT and CIA to work in the psychological and political domains. I'm not sure I feel that your list is a list of the norms that each have put forward to establish. The US is closer to a representation of their proposed norms. The others are closer to a description of operations/dossiers. It would be very interesting to read a report on proposed norms next to dossiers and strategic incentives for each country. We fully agree that norms established by treaties is a nice path forward.

d0mine 10y ago

Russia is a convenient boogeyman but to call it a cyber superpower is laughable. Who controls the manufacturing? Who tapped in all the internet cables? Who has the power to get any info they like from technology giants such as google, microsoft? Who can turn any phone, webcam, microphone into a surveillance device? Who has their fingers from the lowest hardware layer up through the whole software stack?

jwtadvice 10y ago
I called Russia a superpower, not a "cyber superpower". I freely admit that the US has outpaced Russia, indeed much of the rest of the world, in cyberwarfare.
- d0mine 10y ago
  What metric do you use to call Russia a superpower? Saudi Arabia has larger military budget than Russia. And compared to US, it is not even in the same order of magnitude.
  - woodandsteel 10y ago
    Well, Russia has about 5 times as many military personal, plus about 2,000 nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.
    - d0mine 10y ago
      Again, Russia won't even get a bronze medal by the "active military" metric. Unless you would call North Korea a superpower too; it is the poor metric. I give you nuclear weapons. Only US has more nuclear weapons. But does it matter in the real world? https://youtu.be/1Y1ya-yF35g https://youtu.be/1Y1ya-yF35g (imagine what happens in Russia that has military budget 10 times less than US and no less corruption). Though I still don't understand the logic: Russia has nuclear weapons and therefore it is a superpower compared to US and China? (non-existent political power, isolated, under economic sanctions--what the word "superpower" even means in that case). I understand something has to justify an enormous US military budget--if you don't have real threats; you have to invent them. It wouldn't be unusual that a war were started under false pretences anyway. (if a presidential candidate can laugh while talking about the rape of a 12-year-old girl; she wouldn't even blink before launching the next war https://youtu.be/e2f13f2awK4 https://youtu.be/e2f13f2awK4 )