4 ms·

I agree, people have wildly different perceptions from me, and I think their perceptions are tied to stock performance, instead of the fundamentals of whats goi

I agree, people have wildly different perceptions from me, and I think their perceptions are tied to stock performance, instead of the fundamentals of whats going on here. They have created a money printing machine in the middle of San Francisco. They have 4,000 employees creating continual dilution in the stock and dumping it onto your mom's 401k every single day, and the market still retains a 17 billion market cap. That is printing money pretty freaking well! Twitter is a success story, in this light, and will have even rosier fundamentals when if it has 1/10th the market cap and 1/3rd the employees.

leereeves 10y ago
> Twitter is a success story, in this light, and will have even rosier fundamentals when if it has 1/10th the market cap and 1/3rd the employees. And what would a 90% loss in Twitter stock do to tech stocks in general? Would that be enough to cause another bubble to burst?
- cloudjacker 10y ago
  It would be no different from the story of one venture capital firm marking down the valuation of some other portfolio company. Also King and Zynga have had performance like that. At the end of the day we are just talking about several billion dollars in valuation. The S&P500 returns 1 trillion to shareholders annually. If capital interest in the tech sector is really that fickle, then there's no need to kick the can. San Francisco is begging to return to the "good ole' days" where there was no industry Sounds like a net positive
  - leereeves 10y ago
    Twitter seems like a particularly high profile stock, one of the few known to people who don't play with the latest apps and sites. Who ever mentioned King or Zynga on a TV show or newspaper?
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      > Twitter seems like a particularly high profile stock, one of the few known to people who don't play with the latest apps and sites. > Who ever mentioned King or Zynga on a TV show or newspaper? Judging from Google News (and just picking 2009 for this exercise), lots of people wrote about Zynga in newspapers (especially the NY Times and USA Today.)
    - cloudjacker 10y ago
      If it turns out that a 17 billion dollar company is the pinnacle of irrational exuberance, when it remains a successful company at 3 billion dollars - for example - then the capital enthusiasm for "tech 2.0" was never really there. A reality though is that 17 billion is a drop in the bucket in US equities and you are overestimating the relevance of Twitter's market cap problems.
      - leereeves 10y ago
        I don't mean "irrational exuberance", I mean irrational pricing. If Twitter is overvalued by 10x, some models for valuing established tech companies are way off.
        cloudjacker 10y ago
        well if they had figured it out, the road to 100 million market cap would be a quick one. Just competing views on speculation getting the existing market premium.

leereeves 10y ago

> Twitter is a success story, in this light, and will have even rosier fundamentals when if it has 1/10th the market cap and 1/3rd the employees. And what would a 90% loss in Twitter stock do to tech stocks in general? Would that be enough to cause another bubble to burst?

cloudjacker 10y ago
It would be no different from the story of one venture capital firm marking down the valuation of some other portfolio company. Also King and Zynga have had performance like that. At the end of the day we are just talking about several billion dollars in valuation. The S&P500 returns 1 trillion to shareholders annually. If capital interest in the tech sector is really that fickle, then there's no need to kick the can. San Francisco is begging to return to the "good ole' days" where there was no industry Sounds like a net positive
- leereeves 10y ago
  Twitter seems like a particularly high profile stock, one of the few known to people who don't play with the latest apps and sites. Who ever mentioned King or Zynga on a TV show or newspaper?
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > Twitter seems like a particularly high profile stock, one of the few known to people who don't play with the latest apps and sites. > Who ever mentioned King or Zynga on a TV show or newspaper? Judging from Google News (and just picking 2009 for this exercise), lots of people wrote about Zynga in newspapers (especially the NY Times and USA Today.)
  - cloudjacker 10y ago
    If it turns out that a 17 billion dollar company is the pinnacle of irrational exuberance, when it remains a successful company at 3 billion dollars - for example - then the capital enthusiasm for "tech 2.0" was never really there. A reality though is that 17 billion is a drop in the bucket in US equities and you are overestimating the relevance of Twitter's market cap problems.
    - leereeves 10y ago
      I don't mean "irrational exuberance", I mean irrational pricing. If Twitter is overvalued by 10x, some models for valuing established tech companies are way off.
      - cloudjacker 10y ago
        well if they had figured it out, the road to 100 million market cap would be a quick one. Just competing views on speculation getting the existing market premium.