4 ms·

You make some good points but I think you go a little off the rails with the social commentary. The truth is that wages a worker can earn are bounded at the to

by jordanb 10y ago

You make some good points but I think you go a little off the rails with the social commentary. The truth is that wages a worker can earn are bounded at the top by how much value they add. If they are paid more than the value they create they'll be fired (unless they're executives). A manufacturing line can produce millions of dollars of value with a few dozen workers. This means if the workers organize properly and if they're not undermined by foreign competition then they can potentially capture a lot of value and have high incomes. The "service" jobs that are replacing them add much less value. A caregiver can only work with one person at a time, and maybe six or eight in a workday. That guarantees the job will be low wage or not done at all. Our economy used to produce jobs by the tens of millions where an average guy with average ability and a willingness to endure hard work and monotony could buy a house, raise a family, go on the annual vacation to Niagara Falls or the Grand Canyon, have his wife work as much or as little as she wants and eventually retire comfortably. The economy doesn't produce these jobs anymore. Now we have jobs that are still well compensated but comparatively small in number and highly specialized or jobs that are not and can not provide wages to live the lives people used to have.

asperous 10y ago
I think the upper bound on manufacturing jobs would be the cost of automation.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  Automation isn't the enemy of manufacturing these days as much as decentralized manufacturing is. Once 3D printing evolves to the point of being suitable to print everyday items it would kill a lot of jobs all across the supply chain the manufacturing industry.
  - bluedino 10y ago
    >> Once 3D printing evolves to the point of being suitable to print everyday items That won't happen any time soon. Sure, you can print household items like a cup, plate, and possibly silverware but so many household things are made out of materials that aren't really 'printable' (a pillow or couch for example) or complicated devices with components (headphones, a can of air freshener, a laptop), manufacturing plays a role in all of those items.
    - dogma1138 10y ago
      These items being 3D printable are considerably closer than you think. We can actually 3D print a pillow now since we already have printers that can 3D print with memory foam. https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/now-can-3d-print-memory-foam-34265/ https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/now-can-3d-print-memory-... The current high end generation of printers use a combination of lithographic/ultrasound and chemical based process control can produce rigid and flexible materials from the same substrate. e.g. http://carbon3d.com/ http://carbon3d.com/ And we can print already circuit boards as well as embed wires and conductors in the 3D printing process, we can also 3D print basic components like resistors and capacitors. http://www.kurzweilai.net/3d-printing-basic-electronic-components http://www.kurzweilai.net/3d-printing-basic-electronic-compo... If you think this ain't happening any time soon, we either have a very different definition of soon or you don't really understand just how far 3D printing and additive manufacturing in general has progressed over the past 5 years alone. We are considerably closer today to the day where when you need a new pair of headphones you simply walk to a kiosk than to the days when low-skilled labor manufacturing was a major part of western industry. While this isn't going to be done within 2 years, within a decade it is going to be possible, especially considering that additive manufacturing is already being used by local shops and major companies are pushing for this in order to simplify their supply chain. The car companies are a very good example of this, Audi and a few others have been investing heavily in additive manufacturing of replacement parts in order to be able to grant their authorized dealers and repair shops the ability to 3D print many parts in house. This means that car companies do not need to continue to manufacture replacement parts for decades and keep old tooling a live or to outsource manufacturing to 3rd parties in order to keep their cars running, this also cuts down the cost of shipping and inventory management considerably. Many other businesses/industries also are expanding into similar techniques with plumbing, electrical work and HVAC systems being prime candidates and being actively piloted in the field, need a 4" Y connector? simply go to your truck and print one....
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]

by jordanb 10y ago

asperous 10y ago

I think the upper bound on manufacturing jobs would be the cost of automation.

dogma1138 10y ago
Automation isn't the enemy of manufacturing these days as much as decentralized manufacturing is. Once 3D printing evolves to the point of being suitable to print everyday items it would kill a lot of jobs all across the supply chain the manufacturing industry.
- bluedino 10y ago
  >> Once 3D printing evolves to the point of being suitable to print everyday items That won't happen any time soon. Sure, you can print household items like a cup, plate, and possibly silverware but so many household things are made out of materials that aren't really 'printable' (a pillow or couch for example) or complicated devices with components (headphones, a can of air freshener, a laptop), manufacturing plays a role in all of those items.
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    These items being 3D printable are considerably closer than you think. We can actually 3D print a pillow now since we already have printers that can 3D print with memory foam. https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/now-can-3d-print-memory-foam-34265/ https://3dprintingindustry.com/news/now-can-3d-print-memory-... The current high end generation of printers use a combination of lithographic/ultrasound and chemical based process control can produce rigid and flexible materials from the same substrate. e.g. http://carbon3d.com/ http://carbon3d.com/ And we can print already circuit boards as well as embed wires and conductors in the 3D printing process, we can also 3D print basic components like resistors and capacitors. http://www.kurzweilai.net/3d-printing-basic-electronic-components http://www.kurzweilai.net/3d-printing-basic-electronic-compo... If you think this ain't happening any time soon, we either have a very different definition of soon or you don't really understand just how far 3D printing and additive manufacturing in general has progressed over the past 5 years alone. We are considerably closer today to the day where when you need a new pair of headphones you simply walk to a kiosk than to the days when low-skilled labor manufacturing was a major part of western industry. While this isn't going to be done within 2 years, within a decade it is going to be possible, especially considering that additive manufacturing is already being used by local shops and major companies are pushing for this in order to simplify their supply chain. The car companies are a very good example of this, Audi and a few others have been investing heavily in additive manufacturing of replacement parts in order to be able to grant their authorized dealers and repair shops the ability to 3D print many parts in house. This means that car companies do not need to continue to manufacture replacement parts for decades and keep old tooling a live or to outsource manufacturing to 3rd parties in order to keep their cars running, this also cuts down the cost of shipping and inventory management considerably. Many other businesses/industries also are expanding into similar techniques with plumbing, electrical work and HVAC systems being prime candidates and being actively piloted in the field, need a 4" Y connector? simply go to your truck and print one....
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]