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Low interest rates (at least with a yield curve) can help banks. Banks that can borrow short term and pay near zero, and lend long term (say a mortgage) with a
by mathattack 10y ago
Low interest rates (at least with a yield curve) can help banks. Banks that can borrow short term and pay near zero, and lend long term (say a mortgage) with a higher rate can make money in this environment.
Insurance and Pensions are trickier, and it gets to the point of real (inflation adjusted) versus nominal returns. If an insurance company needs to invest against a real returns, than a 3% interest rate with 0% inflation is the same as 7% with 4% inflation. This is how we should think of our 401Ks - as long as we maintain purchasing power, the # of the rate doesn't matter. (Rates rise when inflation rises and goes down when it shrinks) The flip side is if insurance companies or pensions make nominal promises ("Give us 10% of your income per year, and we'll invest it guaranteed at a 5% return") then it becomes problematic. But in a low rate environment, people shouldn't be making these kinds of promises.
The strange thing about this whole article is why now? Why are the financial markets more of a casino than in 1999 or 2007?
- forgetsusername 10y agoIf banks make money off the interest rate spread, how does the absolute level of rates matter (outside of misjudged future rising rates)?
- TheSpiceIsLife 10y agoI think it goes something like this: Low interest rates cause debt inflation. People can borrow increasingly more as rates go down. As rates go down, the spread doesn't change, but the value of the loans increases. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can fix me up here.
- mathattack 10y agoThey don't. And they borrow from each other at "Libor Plus" which is a variable rate. (Libor is variable)