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It’s Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse (2015)

15 points by aburan28 10y ago

ting_bu_dung 10y ago
It seems the main threat from a Saudi collapse is a takeover from Iran-Russian-Syria coalition. That's a tough one because both Saudi and Russia are hostile to US. But it's doubtful Russia can launch a full-scaled invasion into a soverign country.
fredgrott 10y ago
Maybe I am confused. At some point as the World chooses cheaper oil supplies and eventually runs to a new enegry source that is not oil. That trend is not something anyone nation can prevent, it will happen within the full next 100 years. The worry is not that Saudi Arabia and Iran will collapse..that is going to happen in the next 100 years. The concern is right now Saudi Arabia and Iran officially are still at undeclared war with Israel.. does any regime give us a worse set-up in the undeclared war with Israel? But having both as failed stats woudl be something worse
- mschuster91 10y ago
  > But having both as failed stats woudl be something worse Iran, in contrast to Saudi-Arabia, has industry: tourism, textiles, cement and steel. Also, due to the long international sanctions, they're used to not depend on their oil exports. Saudi-Arabia has nothing to offer except Mecca - which would likely be battle ground after a regime overthrow, because of the importance of Mecca. Yes, the SA regime has truckloads of money, but I'd guess it's all locked in foreign countries under control of members of the currently ruling family - so if the regime were to fall, vast loads of Saudi-Arabian money would not be available in the country any more.
  - bmh_ca 10y ago
    SA has $117 bn in treasuries. https://www.ft.com/content/c1569904-1c14-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122 https://www.ft.com/content/c1569904-1c14-11e6-b286-cddde55ca...
    - mschuster91 10y ago
      The question is: who helds authority over which part of the assets of the Saudi state assets? If it's members of the ruling family, good luck collecting the assets. Even if it's a central bank, assets might not neccessarily be safe from theft during a coup. We've seen this all too often already.
  - ende 10y ago
    Israel and the Saudis are pretty close allies. To the extent that the two have plotted out air corridors by which Israel jets could fly through to bomb Iran.
mschuster91 10y ago
I personally hope that the Saudi dictatorship gets thrown out sooner than later. Saudi-Arabia is the funding source both financially and ideologically for lots of terrorist groups, including Al-Quaeda and the so-called Islamic State. I don't have any fears about the oil prices - while it's true that Saudi oil is by far the cheapest worldwide, Iran has a lot of growth potential, and the Russians would also like to sell more oil, given their disastruous financial situation. The real risk after a Saudi collapse, though, is: who is going to take over after a coup, and which regime is set to fall next? And I'm not sure I like the options available...
- pliftkl 10y ago
  Your risk is right on. The problem with throwing out dictators (laudable) is what they get replaced with (not necessarily an improvement). If Saudi Arabia were to fall and be replaced by an ISIS style state, we'd be very limited in our ability to respond militarily without enraging significant parts of the Muslim world by conducting military operations on sacred ground. That then begs the question of "do we even care if there's an ISIS style state in Saudi Arabia?" The answer is probably yes, since an ISIS inspired state would clearly have ambitions beyond the Arabian peninsula.
acconrad 10y ago
As someone with limited foreign policy knowledge, don't we want a Saudi collapse? Wahhabism was state-sponsored by the Saudis, the underlying extremist religious movement behind Al-Qaeda and ISIS. So it seems to me that the Saudi regime is something we would all really want to go away. I also found it kind of ridiculous that the author mentioned the Obama administration's decision to leave the area as a cause for destabilization. What the hell does the world want us to do? If we police everything, we get the reputation we've earned of being Big Brother/Big Bully. If we take a more laissez faire approach, now the world thinks we aren't doing enough to help? We're damned if we do, damned if we don't.
- basch 10y ago
  http://www.mintpressnews.com/MyMPN/the-myth-of-bitter-lake-why-the-british-empire-foisted-saudi-arabia-on-the-u-s/ http://www.mintpressnews.com/MyMPN/the-myth-of-bitter-lake-w... the more accepted narrative - https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee120/node/241 https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee120/node/241
- oxide 10y ago
  AFAIK, Saudis are a key ally in the region which is why we turn blind eyes to Riydah. So, no, the US wants the current regime to stay and keep the status quo. Losing the current regime could be bad news. Who's to say who and what fills the vacuum? Better to keep the current regime propped up than roll the dice and possibly lose. There are no bones about the Saudis being every bit as undesirable a regime as some others.

15 points by aburan28 10y ago

It seems the main threat from a Saudi collapse is a takeover from Iran-Russian-Syria coalition. That's a tough one because both Saudi and Russia are hostile to US. But it's doubtful Russia can launch a full-scaled invasion into a soverign country.

fredgrott 10y ago

Maybe I am confused. At some point as the World chooses cheaper oil supplies and eventually runs to a new enegry source that is not oil. That trend is not something anyone nation can prevent, it will happen within the full next 100 years. The worry is not that Saudi Arabia and Iran will collapse..that is going to happen in the next 100 years. The concern is right now Saudi Arabia and Iran officially are still at undeclared war with Israel.. does any regime give us a worse set-up in the undeclared war with Israel? But having both as failed stats woudl be something worse

mschuster91 10y ago
> But having both as failed stats woudl be something worse Iran, in contrast to Saudi-Arabia, has industry: tourism, textiles, cement and steel. Also, due to the long international sanctions, they're used to not depend on their oil exports. Saudi-Arabia has nothing to offer except Mecca - which would likely be battle ground after a regime overthrow, because of the importance of Mecca. Yes, the SA regime has truckloads of money, but I'd guess it's all locked in foreign countries under control of members of the currently ruling family - so if the regime were to fall, vast loads of Saudi-Arabian money would not be available in the country any more.
- bmh_ca 10y ago
  SA has $117 bn in treasuries. https://www.ft.com/content/c1569904-1c14-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122 https://www.ft.com/content/c1569904-1c14-11e6-b286-cddde55ca...
  - mschuster91 10y ago
    The question is: who helds authority over which part of the assets of the Saudi state assets? If it's members of the ruling family, good luck collecting the assets. Even if it's a central bank, assets might not neccessarily be safe from theft during a coup. We've seen this all too often already.
- ende 10y ago
  Israel and the Saudis are pretty close allies. To the extent that the two have plotted out air corridors by which Israel jets could fly through to bomb Iran.

mschuster91 10y ago

I personally hope that the Saudi dictatorship gets thrown out sooner than later. Saudi-Arabia is the funding source both financially and ideologically for lots of terrorist groups, including Al-Quaeda and the so-called Islamic State. I don't have any fears about the oil prices - while it's true that Saudi oil is by far the cheapest worldwide, Iran has a lot of growth potential, and the Russians would also like to sell more oil, given their disastruous financial situation. The real risk after a Saudi collapse, though, is: who is going to take over after a coup, and which regime is set to fall next? And I'm not sure I like the options available...

pliftkl 10y ago
Your risk is right on. The problem with throwing out dictators (laudable) is what they get replaced with (not necessarily an improvement). If Saudi Arabia were to fall and be replaced by an ISIS style state, we'd be very limited in our ability to respond militarily without enraging significant parts of the Muslim world by conducting military operations on sacred ground. That then begs the question of "do we even care if there's an ISIS style state in Saudi Arabia?" The answer is probably yes, since an ISIS inspired state would clearly have ambitions beyond the Arabian peninsula.

acconrad 10y ago

As someone with limited foreign policy knowledge, don't we want a Saudi collapse? Wahhabism was state-sponsored by the Saudis, the underlying extremist religious movement behind Al-Qaeda and ISIS. So it seems to me that the Saudi regime is something we would all really want to go away. I also found it kind of ridiculous that the author mentioned the Obama administration's decision to leave the area as a cause for destabilization. What the hell does the world want us to do? If we police everything, we get the reputation we've earned of being Big Brother/Big Bully. If we take a more laissez faire approach, now the world thinks we aren't doing enough to help? We're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

basch 10y ago
http://www.mintpressnews.com/MyMPN/the-myth-of-bitter-lake-why-the-british-empire-foisted-saudi-arabia-on-the-u-s/ http://www.mintpressnews.com/MyMPN/the-myth-of-bitter-lake-w... the more accepted narrative - https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee120/node/241 https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee120/node/241
oxide 10y ago
AFAIK, Saudis are a key ally in the region which is why we turn blind eyes to Riydah. So, no, the US wants the current regime to stay and keep the status quo. Losing the current regime could be bad news. Who's to say who and what fills the vacuum? Better to keep the current regime propped up than roll the dice and possibly lose. There are no bones about the Saudis being every bit as undesirable a regime as some others.