There is a lot value and money to be made in the long tail. Simply taking a black box approach and measuring what is easy to measure in the short run is not rea

There is a lot value and money to be made in the long tail. Simply taking a black box approach and measuring what is easy to measure in the short run is not really useful to predict how many people and how deeply people will engage. Distribution channels for narrow audiences (amazon for books/dvds, netflix/torrents for video) combined with social network dynamics have changed the game. Of course there is also the case that a world event changes the game. One of the most famous failed shows - not in the list - is Startrek. Moonlanding ignited that boom.