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American Men Heading for 25% Unemployment by 2050
- triMichael 10y agoBad logic and flawed data extrapolation in the title and graph. You can't extrapolate percentages linearly over large amounts, otherwise by the year 2550 there will be 125% unemployment. As usual, relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- pboutros 10y agoI don't think the findings are all the flawed -- you see similar %'s in other developed economies. It's not like Lawrence Summers just extrapolated the data and relied only on that!
- triMichael 10y agoI edited my comment to say title and post. After reading a bit more thoroughly I realized he doesn't blindly use the graph data. But that title on the post is sure misleading! I guess the article title "A disaster is looming for American men" was a bit too vague for HN, but I think the replacement title is flawed.
- nijiko 10y agoExactly what I came to comment, thanks.
- TazeTSchnitzel 10y agoWhy American men specifically? Is it that women tend to be in careers that are less under threat in the next 34 years? Or, are they similarly affected here?
- justinlardinois 10y agoI asked the same question the last time this was posted. Discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12585129 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12585129
- gertef 10y agowomen's role in the economy (not seeking employment -> seeking employment) has shifted drastically over the decades, making it harder to draw silly linear trend lines like OP.
- justinlardinois 10y agoThis was posted a few days ago, discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12584747 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12584747
- VertexRed 10y agoThere's no point in commenting there since the thread is dead.
- marak830 10y agoNormally I'd agree, but there are some good arguments for every side there.
- justinlardinois 10y agoI was suggesting that those comments be read, not necessarily replied to.
- skizm 10y agohttps://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- VertexRed 10y agoI really wonder what people will work with in the future with both the AI and human population advancing rapidly. Jobs will be taken over by robots at the same time as more mouths will have to be fed.