4 ms·

> I was really surprised by how low their their worse case scenario was. There's no Y axis on the chart, so we don't know exactly what their estimate actually

> I was really surprised by how low their their worse case scenario was. There's no Y axis on the chart, so we don't know exactly what their estimate actually was. Regardless, I'm pretty sure Pokemon GO exceeded any reasonable expectations of popularity, even accounting for the brand and marketing efforts behind it. From my own experience, lots of people that never engaged with mobile games before started playing Pokemon GO within days of its release. My entire extending family was playing the game. Local bars have become arenas for Pokemon fights. The adoption of this game was absolutely crazy. So even given the scaling problems, the features they had to remove from the game, and the bugs they introduced, I think this is still a solid win for Google CRE.

Declanomous 10y ago
I'm assuming the Y-axis is to scale. Assuming it isn't, the numbers they give imply what actually happened is 10x worse than their worse case. Unless Niantic defines "worst case" as "1 in 10 chance of happening", being an entire factor off in a worst case prediction is really bad. For example, one of the highest estimates of daily US users I saw was 25 million. That's way more than I would have guessed off the top of my head, but it's no where near 10 times what I would have guessed the "worst case" scenario would have been. Pokemon Red and Blue sold 9.85 million copies on gameboy alone. My worst case scenario would assume that literally everyone who played the game as a kid would want to check out the game as an adult. Our worse case is massively more accurate than theirs just using the Gameboy numbers alone, with the assumption that each cart sold was only played by one person. The assumption that people who have never played mobile games before wouldn't be interested in Pokemon is kind of crazy as well. I can't think of another mobile game that has as much name recognition before it released as Pokemon go. It's a beloved franchise, whose popularity spans generations. On top of that, cellphones are far more ubiquitous than the gameboy ever was. There are people who are playing Pokemon go who have never been in to mobile gaming, but I doubt the number of people playing Pokemon Go who have never played another video game in their life is much, much, much smaller. We had our team building event for my company at an barcade last year. Every single high score was set by someone older than 50. Literally every single person at the company had played Ms. Pac Man before, including some people who literally have never owned a cell phone. The people who don't own a cellphone are obviously not playing Pokemon Go, but video games are not niche, and have not been niche for a long time now. I will give Niantic massive credit for recognizing how much of a problem this was going to be immediately. I'm sure I would have under-allocated resources on launch day too, and I don't see myself handling that issue as well. Still, there's no way in hell what actually happened would be 10x worse than my actual worse case.
- zardeh 10y ago
  >Pokemon Red and Blue sold 9.85 million copies on gameboy alone. That was two games, and that was "by the end of their run". >The assumption that people who have never played mobile games before wouldn't be interested in Pokemon is kind of crazy as well. I can't think of another mobile game that has as much name recognition before it released as Pokemon go. It's a beloved franchise, whose popularity spans generations. On top of that, cellphones are far more ubiquitous than the gameboy ever was. There are people who are playing Pokemon go who have never been in to mobile gaming, but I doubt the number of people playing Pokemon Go who have never played another video game in their life is much, much, much smaller. You're aided by hindsight. PKGO grew faster than any prior mobile game or any previous pokemon IP, by a large margin.

Declanomous 10y ago

I'm assuming the Y-axis is to scale. Assuming it isn't, the numbers they give imply what actually happened is 10x worse than their worse case. Unless Niantic defines "worst case" as "1 in 10 chance of happening", being an entire factor off in a worst case prediction is really bad. For example, one of the highest estimates of daily US users I saw was 25 million. That's way more than I would have guessed off the top of my head, but it's no where near 10 times what I would have guessed the "worst case" scenario would have been. Pokemon Red and Blue sold 9.85 million copies on gameboy alone. My worst case scenario would assume that literally everyone who played the game as a kid would want to check out the game as an adult. Our worse case is massively more accurate than theirs just using the Gameboy numbers alone, with the assumption that each cart sold was only played by one person. The assumption that people who have never played mobile games before wouldn't be interested in Pokemon is kind of crazy as well. I can't think of another mobile game that has as much name recognition before it released as Pokemon go. It's a beloved franchise, whose popularity spans generations. On top of that, cellphones are far more ubiquitous than the gameboy ever was. There are people who are playing Pokemon go who have never been in to mobile gaming, but I doubt the number of people playing Pokemon Go who have never played another video game in their life is much, much, much smaller. We had our team building event for my company at an barcade last year. Every single high score was set by someone older than 50. Literally every single person at the company had played Ms. Pac Man before, including some people who literally have never owned a cell phone. The people who don't own a cellphone are obviously not playing Pokemon Go, but video games are not niche, and have not been niche for a long time now. I will give Niantic massive credit for recognizing how much of a problem this was going to be immediately. I'm sure I would have under-allocated resources on launch day too, and I don't see myself handling that issue as well. Still, there's no way in hell what actually happened would be 10x worse than my actual worse case.

zardeh 10y ago
>Pokemon Red and Blue sold 9.85 million copies on gameboy alone. That was two games, and that was "by the end of their run". >The assumption that people who have never played mobile games before wouldn't be interested in Pokemon is kind of crazy as well. I can't think of another mobile game that has as much name recognition before it released as Pokemon go. It's a beloved franchise, whose popularity spans generations. On top of that, cellphones are far more ubiquitous than the gameboy ever was. There are people who are playing Pokemon go who have never been in to mobile gaming, but I doubt the number of people playing Pokemon Go who have never played another video game in their life is much, much, much smaller. You're aided by hindsight. PKGO grew faster than any prior mobile game or any previous pokemon IP, by a large margin.