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5000M home use routers over 10 years doesn't sound right. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_
by mrob 10y ago
5000M home use routers over 10 years doesn't sound right. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage , only about 10% of 7.2B people had a fixed broadband internet connection as of 2014. And these connections are typically shared between multiple people, so assuming 1 router per 2 people, that's only 360M routers. Making the conservative assumption that they are replaced every 2 years (in my experience it's actually less frequent), that's still only 1.8B chips. And that's for the entire market, not just Broadcom.
- oneplane 10y agoWell, I based my loose figure on the Linksys WRT54G which sold 50 million units in 11 years. So in a best case situation, there would globally be 100 similar models in that timespan also selling about 50 million. On top of that, you usually have a CPE provided by the ISP on which the open market models are added on top of, theoretically making the market twice as big. And then there's at least one chip at the other end of the line (i.e. a line card) and possibly more since there are multiple hops in between a carrier core network and the end-user. In the past, a router might have lasted about 5 years, but currently, with the speeds almost getting an order of magnitude higher, almost any router that's 2 years old or more is no longer suitable. So that's why my guess with the SoC sales for broadcom-ish chips is at 5000M :) And then there's the STB's, mobile phones, smart devices, TV's, modern DECT phones, cars etc. Even every 802.11 device (be it PCI, USB or otherwise) has a SoC, as the radio's can't work on the host CPU due to timing.