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So for autonomous trucks how will human truckers keep their jobs? For the auto manufacture industry, how many less humans does Tesla employ to produce a vehicle

So for autonomous trucks how will human truckers keep their jobs? For the auto manufacture industry, how many less humans does Tesla employ to produce a vehicle vs in 1996? For the service industry...how many jobs are being replaced as McDonalds rolls out kiosks? You are uninformed if you believe these jobs are staying. There is no way, mark my words, that our economy doesn't experience a net negative in jobs during this next revolution. It's not all bad though, it could push us towards UBI, maybe a supply based economy. Otherwise we're basically saying jesus take the wheel. A guy can dream.

reverend_gonzo 10y ago
Jobs will definitely disappear, and some people will definitely suffer, but new jobs and new industries will rise up. Those who can adapt to changes will do just fine, and the rest, well, they will get left behind. The world is changing, faster than it has in the past. No one know exactly what will happen, but there's a whole new generation of people who have no idea what it used to be like, and they will do their best to survive. The economy, and life, will find a way.
- jklinger410 10y ago
  >but new jobs and new industries will rise up. At some point you have to admit that there is a limit to the potential jobs that a society can support. You can hope these hypothetical new jobs get created, but I don't know how you can prepare for them. I sincerely believe there is no way to invent enough jobs, by convenience or necessity, to replace the amount of jobs that will be destroyed by automation.
  - ekianjo 10y ago
    > At some point you have to admit that there is a limit to the potential jobs that a society can support How about the people Google and Facebook and Twitter employ ? That's a huge workforce and these jobs were not predicted by anyone 15 years back. And I'm not even talking about the network effect, i.e. businesses and freelancers and individuals who were able to build their businesses on top of the services offered by such companies. And that's just a single industry. Look at how the solar panel industry is growing, or the smartphone industry (it did not exist 10 years ago), and look at all these companies living off it making apps and services around those. Seriously, opportunities arise by themselves.
    - vkou 10y ago
      Google and Facebook have a combined market cap of 900 billion, and employ 70,000 people between the two of them. Their profit last year was ~20 billion. Ford alone employs 200,000 people, with a market cap of... 48 billion. And a profit of ~7 billion. GM also employs ~200,000 people. With a market cap of... 50 billion. And a profit of ~7 billion. Tech employs very few people, compared to the amount of money it brings in.
      - ekianjo 10y ago
        You are not counting the jobs they enabled.
ekianjo 10y ago
> You are uninformed if you believe these jobs are staying. There is no way, mark my words, that our economy doesn't experience a net negative in jobs during this next revolution. People were saying the exact same thing when sophisticated machines were introduced in automotive industry manufacturing. Sure, some people could not convert and lost jobs, but everyone else moved on to be productive in other areas. This prophecy of Doom is happening every 10 years or so.
- jklinger410 10y ago
  >Sure, some people could not convert and lost jobs, but everyone else moved on to be productive in other areas. Tell this to the midwest, where the lie of our government's unemployment reporting is most obvious. It's honestly kind of offensive that you said that as I am from Michigan. And as I have said in other comments (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12605690 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12605690), there are factors like the stagnant minimum wage and self-interest at play that have kept jobs in these companies that could be replaced currently let alone in 10 years. I am not here to convince you to change your mind about potential job loss. Understanding the technology, our current economy, and the political atmosphere around jobs should be enough to convince you of this truth. As others have said, maybe there are imaginary jobs that will be invented to make up for these losses. I'm sure the banks will do their best to make sure that happens.
- vkou 10y ago
  So, when is the entire Rust Belt going to pack up, and move to be productive in other areas? Where are they going to go? San Francisco? Is there some demand for the general skills of former lathe operators, that we've all missed? Should millions of people start building websites that make money by advertising other websites that make money by advertising other websites?

reverend_gonzo 10y ago

Jobs will definitely disappear, and some people will definitely suffer, but new jobs and new industries will rise up. Those who can adapt to changes will do just fine, and the rest, well, they will get left behind. The world is changing, faster than it has in the past. No one know exactly what will happen, but there's a whole new generation of people who have no idea what it used to be like, and they will do their best to survive. The economy, and life, will find a way.

jklinger410 10y ago
>but new jobs and new industries will rise up. At some point you have to admit that there is a limit to the potential jobs that a society can support. You can hope these hypothetical new jobs get created, but I don't know how you can prepare for them. I sincerely believe there is no way to invent enough jobs, by convenience or necessity, to replace the amount of jobs that will be destroyed by automation.
- ekianjo 10y ago
  > At some point you have to admit that there is a limit to the potential jobs that a society can support How about the people Google and Facebook and Twitter employ ? That's a huge workforce and these jobs were not predicted by anyone 15 years back. And I'm not even talking about the network effect, i.e. businesses and freelancers and individuals who were able to build their businesses on top of the services offered by such companies. And that's just a single industry. Look at how the solar panel industry is growing, or the smartphone industry (it did not exist 10 years ago), and look at all these companies living off it making apps and services around those. Seriously, opportunities arise by themselves.
  - vkou 10y ago
    Google and Facebook have a combined market cap of 900 billion, and employ 70,000 people between the two of them. Their profit last year was ~20 billion. Ford alone employs 200,000 people, with a market cap of... 48 billion. And a profit of ~7 billion. GM also employs ~200,000 people. With a market cap of... 50 billion. And a profit of ~7 billion. Tech employs very few people, compared to the amount of money it brings in.
    - ekianjo 10y ago
      You are not counting the jobs they enabled.

ekianjo 10y ago

> You are uninformed if you believe these jobs are staying. There is no way, mark my words, that our economy doesn't experience a net negative in jobs during this next revolution. People were saying the exact same thing when sophisticated machines were introduced in automotive industry manufacturing. Sure, some people could not convert and lost jobs, but everyone else moved on to be productive in other areas. This prophecy of Doom is happening every 10 years or so.

jklinger410 10y ago
>Sure, some people could not convert and lost jobs, but everyone else moved on to be productive in other areas. Tell this to the midwest, where the lie of our government's unemployment reporting is most obvious. It's honestly kind of offensive that you said that as I am from Michigan. And as I have said in other comments (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12605690 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12605690), there are factors like the stagnant minimum wage and self-interest at play that have kept jobs in these companies that could be replaced currently let alone in 10 years. I am not here to convince you to change your mind about potential job loss. Understanding the technology, our current economy, and the political atmosphere around jobs should be enough to convince you of this truth. As others have said, maybe there are imaginary jobs that will be invented to make up for these losses. I'm sure the banks will do their best to make sure that happens.
vkou 10y ago
So, when is the entire Rust Belt going to pack up, and move to be productive in other areas? Where are they going to go? San Francisco? Is there some demand for the general skills of former lathe operators, that we've all missed? Should millions of people start building websites that make money by advertising other websites that make money by advertising other websites?