4 ms·

Oil is not a big part of electricity generation in most places.

by yessql 10y ago

the_economist 10y ago
Major energy sources and percent share of total U.S. electricity generation in 2015 Coal = 33% Natural gas = 33% Nuclear = 20% Hydropower = 6% Other renewables = 7% Biomass = 1.6% Geothermal = 0.4% Solar = 0.6% Wind = 4.7% Petroleum = 1% Other gases = <1% An electric fleet (powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear) will reduce demand for oil, so movement in that direction is likely cause falling oil prices. Which could lead to more people buying oil-powered cars again.
- drcross 10y ago
  I think the genie is out of the bottle with regards to electric cars. They've proven they work and can compete with internal combustion cars on most metrics that people care about and exceed ICEs in a number of ways. Battery capacity generally increases 8% per year, and battery production is ramping up in ways never seen before. The mindshare has already left Gas cars, it's just a matter of time before sales slip to electric, a bit like Nokia compared to the smartphone, Nokia were still shipping millions of units but consumer demand was waiting for cheaper smartphone units, once it did Nokia was destroyed.
  - wyldfire 10y ago
    By the time electric cars are ready for ubiquity, transportation-as-a-utility will have exploded thanks to autonomous vehicles. Why buy an electric car with less maintenance than a gas one when you can just skip out on owning a car entirely? Governments and/or insurance can directly or indirectly subsidize this move for the sake of safety.
    - blahi 10y ago
      Why would insurance companies do this? They stand to lose a TON by autonomous vehicles. Estimates are in the 60 to 80% of the market to go away.
      - botty_throwaway 10y ago
        Risk versus technological change is a dynamical system, yet many of the sky-is-falling estimates for the insurance industry myopically forecast assuming an invariant risk set-point. For an alternate perspective of a potential (lucrative) future for insurance, see my post here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12245312 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12245312
        blahi 10y ago
        I see but what happens if the parameters of the transportation systems are regulated?
        drcross 10y ago
        I disagree with you, OP mentions 60% reduction in the civilian insurance market and there's studies to back that up- http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2015/10/23/385779.htm http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2015/10/23/385... Any large scale car accidents will be re-simulated, analysed and scoured until they are fixed, the general public will not permit them to persist. This means a complete collapse of the entire industry except for enterprise scale underwriting of the car manufacturers which they may already have for recalls.
- pataphysician 10y ago
  Russia, Saudi Arabia, USA, and many of the oil producers also produce natural gas. Oils can also be refined into natural gas. So countries who produce oil are not always dependent on it as their only energy export.

Oil is not a big part of electricity generation in most places.

by yessql 10y ago

Oil is not a big part of electricity generation in most places.

Major energy sources and percent share of total U.S. electricity generation in 2015 Coal = 33% Natural gas = 33% Nuclear = 20% Hydropower = 6% Other renewables = 7% Biomass = 1.6% Geothermal = 0.4% Solar = 0.6% Wind = 4.7% Petroleum = 1% Other gases = <1% An electric fleet (powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear) will reduce demand for oil, so movement in that direction is likely cause falling oil prices. Which could lead to more people buying oil-powered cars again.

drcross 10y ago
I think the genie is out of the bottle with regards to electric cars. They've proven they work and can compete with internal combustion cars on most metrics that people care about and exceed ICEs in a number of ways. Battery capacity generally increases 8% per year, and battery production is ramping up in ways never seen before. The mindshare has already left Gas cars, it's just a matter of time before sales slip to electric, a bit like Nokia compared to the smartphone, Nokia were still shipping millions of units but consumer demand was waiting for cheaper smartphone units, once it did Nokia was destroyed.
- wyldfire 10y ago
  By the time electric cars are ready for ubiquity, transportation-as-a-utility will have exploded thanks to autonomous vehicles. Why buy an electric car with less maintenance than a gas one when you can just skip out on owning a car entirely? Governments and/or insurance can directly or indirectly subsidize this move for the sake of safety.
  - blahi 10y ago
    Why would insurance companies do this? They stand to lose a TON by autonomous vehicles. Estimates are in the 60 to 80% of the market to go away.
    - botty_throwaway 10y ago
      Risk versus technological change is a dynamical system, yet many of the sky-is-falling estimates for the insurance industry myopically forecast assuming an invariant risk set-point. For an alternate perspective of a potential (lucrative) future for insurance, see my post here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12245312 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12245312
      - blahi 10y ago
        I see but what happens if the parameters of the transportation systems are regulated?
      - drcross 10y ago
        I disagree with you, OP mentions 60% reduction in the civilian insurance market and there's studies to back that up- http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2015/10/23/385779.htm http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2015/10/23/385... Any large scale car accidents will be re-simulated, analysed and scoured until they are fixed, the general public will not permit them to persist. This means a complete collapse of the entire industry except for enterprise scale underwriting of the car manufacturers which they may already have for recalls.
pataphysician 10y ago
Russia, Saudi Arabia, USA, and many of the oil producers also produce natural gas. Oils can also be refined into natural gas. So countries who produce oil are not always dependent on it as their only energy export.