I think the reason there has been so much analysis is that not having Flash on the iPhone affects the end user dramatically, and Apple is all about user experie

I think the reason there has been so much analysis is that not having Flash on the iPhone affects the end user dramatically, and Apple is all about user experience. If Apple wanted to "keep development and apps locked in that platform", they could do so with their app store and still show Flash content on the browser, in theory, to keep the end user happy. The meta-argument here is twofold, really: 1) Does Apple have the "right", as a business, to ban cross-compilers, which can be very efficient for developers and not necessary lower coding standards, and 2) Does this represent a reckoning for Flash, which has always been CPU-intensive at its own peril, when the GPU was the proper place for its vector calculations, and will Flash/Adobe lose marketshare and CS5 purchases as a result?