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That's why I disagree with Elon Musk and others who say "autonomous driving systems only need to be like 50% or 2x better than the average driver". What if I d

by mtgx 10y ago

That's why I disagree with Elon Musk and others who say "autonomous driving systems only need to be like 50% or 2x better than the average driver". What if I drive 5x better and safer than the "average driver"? Doesn't that mean that these cars would now put me in more danger than I would normally be in with my own manual car? Self-driving cars should be 10x better than the best (as in safest by number of incidents, say, per decade) drivers on Earth. Then I could begin trusting them ... if only there wasn't that pesky security issue, too, with self-driving cars getting hacked and then driving you off the highway at 70mph and killing you. We see Teslas getting remotely hacked. If that happens with Tesla, a Silicon Valley car company with a lot of hired top tech talent, how can we ever trust a company like GM or Volkswagen to build safe self-driving cars?

jp555 10y ago
But even if you're the best driver around you 19/20 times you still drive now. I don't see why you give wetware more leeway than hardware.
bsder 10y ago
> What if I drive 5x better and safer than the "average driver"? Doesn't that mean that these cars would now put me in more danger than I would normally be in with my own manual car? Because you are unlikely always that. Are you tired? Do you have a cold? Are you hungry? Are you playing with the radio? Are you having a conversation with a passenger? The huge advantage that self-driving cars will have is integrated systemic control from multiple sensor sources and multiple transducer outputs--and they will never get distracted. Human drivers have mostly 1 input: vision. Human drivers have mostly two outputs: hand and foot. The lag in that system from input to output is >100ms even if you are perfect (I will grant you an exception if your name is Michael Schumacher). Automated systems will have far more inputs. Multiple vision sources. Multiple radars. Temperature readings. RPM readings. etc. Automated systems have far more outputs. Steering is the same. Brakes on individual tires is the big starter. With electric, individual suspension becomes feasible. Transmissions change form and become electrically controlled. And the lag in the system is probably <10ms. That's huge. That's the difference in reacting in roughly 3 meters (2.7 meters) vs 1/3 of a meter at 100kph (9 feet vs 1 foot roughly for 60mph). Finally, automated systems will take subtle preventative actions all the time. They will "see" the child on bicycle on the sidewalk (the idiot detector as Google called it) and "know" that they need to find him again when they attempt to turn right or slow down significantly. They will see the dude on a skateboard and know that they need to give him an extra couple feet if they can in order to deal with him falling. I know very few drivers that are that diligent.
- walshemj 10y ago
  yeh but humans have full AGI unless the culture comes calling (giz us a job dizzy) it isn't going to happen soon
  - hx87 10y ago
    AGIs aren't necessary to drive safely; a sufficiently advanced ANI will do.
    - walshemj 10y ago
      In all conditions? not all driving is on a clear day on a motorway.
      - hx87 10y ago
        An AI that would be able to drive in all conditions (but not be able to do anything other than drive the car) would still be an ANI.
maxerickson 10y ago
If you are 5x better than the average driver, the most likely cause of any accident you are in will be the other driver. Why wouldn't you want to make them better?
tim333 10y ago
Well ideally everything should be perfect but if a 2x system cuts US fatalities from 30k/yr to 15k are you going to ban it?
dllthomas 10y ago
> What if I drive 5x better and safer than the "average driver"? Then don't use the system? You are giving thresholds - 50% to 2x better, 10x better. Before what? Before we ban manual driving? "10x better than the best driver" might make sense. Before we allow it on the road? Why not "better than the worst drivers we allow on the road"? The most relevant point for Musk is probably "before the marketing works out". The market of people who consider themselves "substantially below average" drivers is much smaller than the market of people who consider themselves "not all that much better than average".
hx87 10y ago
> What if I drive 5x better and safer than the "average driver"? How do you know that you're actually 5x better than the average driver and not just deluding yourself?

by mtgx 10y ago

jp555 10y ago

But even if you're the best driver around you 19/20 times you still drive now. I don't see why you give wetware more leeway than hardware.

bsder 10y ago

> What if I drive 5x better and safer than the "average driver"? Doesn't that mean that these cars would now put me in more danger than I would normally be in with my own manual car? Because you are unlikely always that. Are you tired? Do you have a cold? Are you hungry? Are you playing with the radio? Are you having a conversation with a passenger? The huge advantage that self-driving cars will have is integrated systemic control from multiple sensor sources and multiple transducer outputs--and they will never get distracted. Human drivers have mostly 1 input: vision. Human drivers have mostly two outputs: hand and foot. The lag in that system from input to output is >100ms even if you are perfect (I will grant you an exception if your name is Michael Schumacher). Automated systems will have far more inputs. Multiple vision sources. Multiple radars. Temperature readings. RPM readings. etc. Automated systems have far more outputs. Steering is the same. Brakes on individual tires is the big starter. With electric, individual suspension becomes feasible. Transmissions change form and become electrically controlled. And the lag in the system is probably <10ms. That's huge. That's the difference in reacting in roughly 3 meters (2.7 meters) vs 1/3 of a meter at 100kph (9 feet vs 1 foot roughly for 60mph). Finally, automated systems will take subtle preventative actions all the time. They will "see" the child on bicycle on the sidewalk (the idiot detector as Google called it) and "know" that they need to find him again when they attempt to turn right or slow down significantly. They will see the dude on a skateboard and know that they need to give him an extra couple feet if they can in order to deal with him falling. I know very few drivers that are that diligent.

walshemj 10y ago
yeh but humans have full AGI unless the culture comes calling (giz us a job dizzy) it isn't going to happen soon
- hx87 10y ago
  AGIs aren't necessary to drive safely; a sufficiently advanced ANI will do.
  - walshemj 10y ago
    In all conditions? not all driving is on a clear day on a motorway.
    - hx87 10y ago
      An AI that would be able to drive in all conditions (but not be able to do anything other than drive the car) would still be an ANI.

maxerickson 10y ago

If you are 5x better than the average driver, the most likely cause of any accident you are in will be the other driver. Why wouldn't you want to make them better?

tim333 10y ago

Well ideally everything should be perfect but if a 2x system cuts US fatalities from 30k/yr to 15k are you going to ban it?

dllthomas 10y ago

> What if I drive 5x better and safer than the "average driver"? Then don't use the system? You are giving thresholds - 50% to 2x better, 10x better. Before what? Before we ban manual driving? "10x better than the best driver" might make sense. Before we allow it on the road? Why not "better than the worst drivers we allow on the road"? The most relevant point for Musk is probably "before the marketing works out". The market of people who consider themselves "substantially below average" drivers is much smaller than the market of people who consider themselves "not all that much better than average".

hx87 10y ago

> What if I drive 5x better and safer than the "average driver"? How do you know that you're actually 5x better than the average driver and not just deluding yourself?