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I'll take the other side of that bet. My view is that it will come down to the insurance companies. They are going to price policies such that only a very wealt
by bwanab 10y ago
I'll take the other side of that bet. My view is that it will come down to the insurance companies. They are going to price policies such that only a very wealthy person can consider self driving. This will be in less than 15 years.
- ghaff 10y agoWhy would insurance cost more than it does today? Presumably new safety systems will trigger discounts to the degree that they cut the number of dollars that insurance companies need to pay out on their policies. But I see no reason that a profitable policy today wouldn't be profitable in the future just because other cars have more advanced safety systems.
- spitfire 10y agoScarcity? If 99% of the cars are autonomous, and the only people left manually driving are driving Sports cars - everything from Mazda Miata's to Ferrari Enzo's, then that will be a very small, very expensive to market insure.
- sedachv 10y agoDon't forget 4x4 and vintage vehicles. The number of miles driven is one of the biggest predictors for claims and I imagine that most of these enthusiast manually driven vehicles will have low annual mileages. The insurance rates will almost certainly go up, but I do not think they will be unaffordable.
- hx87 10y agoIf 99% of cars on the road are autonomous, it will probably be very difficult to hit one with a self-driven car, so liability costs won't be high. And unless Miata parts and labor skyrocket in price for some reason, comprehensive and collision costs aren't likely to be high either, and one can always skip both.