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I'm excited with Musk's grand vision. However I want to know why this can't happen even sooner. Here's a breakdown of what was discussed that may lead to a fast
by orky56 10y ago
I'm excited with Musk's grand vision. However I want to know why this can't happen even sooner. Here's a breakdown of what was discussed that may lead to a faster timeline:
1) Funding: Current SpaceX resources are tied up in creating the basic infrastructure that will lead to interplanetary travel. SpaceX is still private leading to Musk prioritizing these awesome ventures but still tied to revenue from contracts and limited funding. Going public will destroy the vision but give him the cash reserves to pull in the timeline.
2) Competition: NASA, other government space organization, and the private sector have or will have plans for interplanetary travel. Healthy competition often leads to more innovation and constant motivation. At the same time, it leads to competition for shared resources such as...
3) Talent: Musk mentioned in the Q&A that he can only hire green cards and up. The international talent pool is and will remain untapped unless something drastic changes. Assuming this talent goes to the competition and capitalizes into the positive effects, then it will be worth it. Unfortunately, we have yet to see another private sector company like SpaceX push the envelope as much so I'm not as hopeful that someone has the ability to utilize talent like Musk has. At the same time, SpaceX is known to drive employees into the ground. 7 days a week, tough hours, and impossible timelines is not sustainable for employees. The allure of SpaceX, similar to gaming, keeps talented individuals in line to get a shot at working for SpaceX. As mentioned due to the limited talent due to immigration issues, SpaceX may run into the talent shortage sooner than later.
4) Non-Transport Issues: Transportation is necessary but not sufficient for interplanetary travel & habitation. We don't have a SpaceX/Musk for the other non-transportation related issues. The political/cultural/international issues will be big and then there's terraforming and everything involved with that. Musk may get ahead of schedule but these other issues may push the timeline further and further out.
5) Public Interest: Space travel is not as sexy as it used to be for the public as compared to the Moon landing with the backdrop of the Cold War and arms race. Yes, this is not using direct public funding (if/until NASA decides to pitch in) but the public needs to make this objective be top of mind for it to become a reality. Musk and the science enthusiasts will not be enough. We need to develop a few "X Prize" equivalents for the non-science community to progress on the non-transport issues and show why it matters for the rest of the world.
- lallysingh 10y agoFor #1: he could sell a minority share publicly. I think a lot of people could see a successful spacex make quite a bit of money on the current plan. For #2: We'll see about that. Mars has sat there for a long time, and nobody else has done much about it. By the time others get interested because of (a) SpaceX showing that it can be done (b) Popular interest due to SpaceX's work, SpaceX may be too far ahead for anyone else to help (outside of being customers). For #3: Agreed. I think this may naturally occur as the company stabilizes a bit and the "living on the razor's edge" feeling dissipates. At some point they'll focus more on getting it right then meeting deadlines. For #4: You can control political/cultural/international issues on mars by controlling who gets on the ship from earth. For #5: a bit of hero worship for the future marstronaughts will do plenty, I think. There's a lot of innate interest in whoever becomes the first human to step foot on another planet.