> Make no mistake, people are going to die in the first several runs. I agree, and I would even say this is the main challenge of the project long term - wheth

> Make no mistake, people are going to die in the first several runs. I agree, and I would even say this is the main challenge of the project long term - whether we have the stomach for seeing hundreds of people blow up on the launch pad, suffocating in interplanetary space, or dying from exposure on Mars when a hab block fails (and all of that possibly repeatedly). For some reason we don't have problem sending millions of people to their deaths where they don't happen publicly, but that's where we are right now. You have to weigh these risks (and PR impacts) against the severe drawbacks of civilization-wide stagnation, of which a potential mass extinction event on Earth is just one example. Personally, I would choose to go even if there was a 50% chance of blowing up on the launchpad. > The first colonists will most likely not come back. If they survive for a few years, there will be return opportunities. There is no downside to offering people a ride on returning transports. I would say establishing a reasonable transfer rate between Mars and Earth is vital to the program on several levels. Update: just made it through the QA and Musk seems to agree with me, he says having the option of going back is vital, and they'll be offering free return trips on their transports. > I don't think Mars is viable until we enter a post scarcity world That amounts to never. As a transhumanist and futurist myself, I have grown far less optimistic about the political will to even work towards such a state in recent years. People are violently opposed to switching away from capitalism, for many irrational and even some rational reasons. I allege that technologically speaking the industrial nations of the world could switch to a post-scarcity scenario for the everyday needs of citizens pretty much right away if they wanted to. There is also no compelling reason in my mind why colonizing another planet is something we just can't do using our current means. Some people say there is not enough money to do it, but in reality money is a malleable entity, and we're not batting an eyelash at wasting literally trillions on it. But for some reason investing mere billions into technologically progressive ideas suddenly brings up fundamental questions about the scalability of our economy? Lastly, I also believe starting self-sustaining colonies elsewhere might be the only way of rebooting into a post-scarcity system. Not saying that's what will happen, but at least there is a chance.