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We won't really be an interplanetary species until we can get back from Mars. Imagine being colonists on Mars without the ability to be totally self-sustaining

We won't really be an interplanetary species until we can get back from Mars. Imagine being colonists on Mars without the ability to be totally self-sustaining without technology and supplies from Earth and nuclear war breaks out. It's going to be a long time before any Mars colony can survive on its own.

nickparker 10y ago
Getting back is actually much easier, and we won't send anyone until there's a return ship ready for them on the ground. Mars escape velocity is ~5 km/s compared to 11 km/s for Earth, so right off the bat it takes half as much delta-v to get off Mars. The numbers get even more attractive when you consider that Mars's atmosphere is so thin you can use vacuum-optimized engines on the surface. It's a near-certainty that the second stage of ITS will be able to launch fully fueled from the Martian surface and return to Earth orbit, and possibly Earth's surface, without any refueling on the way.
- bsdetector 10y ago
  What I meant is, until Mars is self-sustaining and eventually capable of recolonizing Earth. Colonists rocketing back to a nuclear wasteland or planet infected with super-viruses won't protect us from extinction. And it's much easier and cheaper just to have underground bunkers than to bring a few people back from Mars on a rocket right after some disaster.
  - nickparker 10y ago
    Civilization isn't the human species, it's a higher level and far more fragile thing. If a small fraction of civilization survived a global disaster in bunkers, it's very possible they would regress during the aftermath and never achieve a global society like ours again. A self sustaining civilization on Mars guarantees not just our survival in the Darwin sense, but our continued technological advancement and expansion.
  - InclinedPlane 10y ago
    This is a limited line of thinking. Eventually humans who are capable of living in a self-sustained colony on Mars will also be able to live anywhere. In space using asteroidal/cometary resources, for example. On the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, etc. The jump between being able to live on Earth and then Mars is actually much greater than the jump between being able to live on Mars and anywhere. At that point humanity no longer would be planet bound. We'll be building cities that house billions of people in, say, the Earth-Sun L4/L5 lagrange points, or wherever we feel like it.
dasmoth 10y ago
Elon has been clear in the past that this is a fully reusable architecture. i.e. he needs his spaceship back! Bringing some passengers is (relatively!) trivial.
djsumdog 10y ago
The first colonists will most likely not come back. Make no mistake, people are going to die in the first several runs. This will be one of the most dangerous endeavors mankind can attempt. As far as war breaking out, we're not going to make it to Mars in our current state. I don't think Mars is viable until we enter a post scarcity world. I find it unlikely we can even attempt it if we're still in a money based economy. I highly recommend The Mars trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson. It's one of the most believable and well thought out sci-fi novel about what populating Mars would be like conceptually.
- 3pt14159 10y ago
  Why can't we be money based and have relatively high redistribution and taxes?
  - gallerdude 10y ago
    Something something socialism /s.
  - randall 10y ago
    See Republicans, red pill people, etc.
- gf263 10y ago
  I finished Red Mars two days ago. A+, hardest scifi I've ever read.
- jameshart 10y ago
  One reasonable definition of 'colonizing' as distinct form 'exploring' is that colonists plan to die there.
- Diederich 10y ago
  Yup, Re: the danger. Later on: Q: Who should be the first humans on Mars? Q: Who should be the first humans on Mars? A: The first journeys will be very dangerous, the risk of fatalities will be high. Likely no children - must be prepared to die. A: The first journeys will be very dangerous, the risk of fatalities will be high. Likely no children - must be prepared to die.
grecy 10y ago
Musk just answered a question that said you can come back if you want to. "The spaceship is coming back anyway, you can get on if you want. Free"
- intrasight 10y ago
  And if the company goes belly-up while you're there?
  - aggie 10y ago
    If you can accept the risk of unpredictable, potentially-horrible death, you can accept the risk of getting stranded. There would probably be suicide measures for a scenario where life support runs out.
    - zardo 10y ago
      >There would probably be suicide measures for a scenario where life support runs out. That's a problem that really just takes care of itself.
  - grecy 10y ago
    > And if the company goes belly-up while you're there? The same thing that would have happened to anyone on the moon if they had lander failure, or to anyone on the ISS if they have catastrophic failure. For that matter, the same thing that would have happened to the First Fleet if they had landed on Australia and been slaughtered in 10 minutes. Of course it's dangerous. Of course there is a real risk you won't come back. That's not a reason to not go, and each individual can make that choice on their own.
stepanhruda 10y ago
The point of being multiplanetary is if there is an extinction event on Earth, people survive on Mars. You don't need to _immediately_ be able to come back, although you need to be able to move off Mars at some point.

nickparker 10y ago

Getting back is actually much easier, and we won't send anyone until there's a return ship ready for them on the ground. Mars escape velocity is ~5 km/s compared to 11 km/s for Earth, so right off the bat it takes half as much delta-v to get off Mars. The numbers get even more attractive when you consider that Mars's atmosphere is so thin you can use vacuum-optimized engines on the surface. It's a near-certainty that the second stage of ITS will be able to launch fully fueled from the Martian surface and return to Earth orbit, and possibly Earth's surface, without any refueling on the way.

bsdetector 10y ago
What I meant is, until Mars is self-sustaining and eventually capable of recolonizing Earth. Colonists rocketing back to a nuclear wasteland or planet infected with super-viruses won't protect us from extinction. And it's much easier and cheaper just to have underground bunkers than to bring a few people back from Mars on a rocket right after some disaster.
- nickparker 10y ago
  Civilization isn't the human species, it's a higher level and far more fragile thing. If a small fraction of civilization survived a global disaster in bunkers, it's very possible they would regress during the aftermath and never achieve a global society like ours again. A self sustaining civilization on Mars guarantees not just our survival in the Darwin sense, but our continued technological advancement and expansion.
- InclinedPlane 10y ago
  This is a limited line of thinking. Eventually humans who are capable of living in a self-sustained colony on Mars will also be able to live anywhere. In space using asteroidal/cometary resources, for example. On the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, etc. The jump between being able to live on Earth and then Mars is actually much greater than the jump between being able to live on Mars and anywhere. At that point humanity no longer would be planet bound. We'll be building cities that house billions of people in, say, the Earth-Sun L4/L5 lagrange points, or wherever we feel like it.

dasmoth 10y ago

Elon has been clear in the past that this is a fully reusable architecture. i.e. he needs his spaceship back! Bringing some passengers is (relatively!) trivial.

djsumdog 10y ago

The first colonists will most likely not come back. Make no mistake, people are going to die in the first several runs. This will be one of the most dangerous endeavors mankind can attempt. As far as war breaking out, we're not going to make it to Mars in our current state. I don't think Mars is viable until we enter a post scarcity world. I find it unlikely we can even attempt it if we're still in a money based economy. I highly recommend The Mars trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson. It's one of the most believable and well thought out sci-fi novel about what populating Mars would be like conceptually.

3pt14159 10y ago
Why can't we be money based and have relatively high redistribution and taxes?
- gallerdude 10y ago
  Something something socialism /s.
- randall 10y ago
  See Republicans, red pill people, etc.
gf263 10y ago
I finished Red Mars two days ago. A+, hardest scifi I've ever read.
jameshart 10y ago
One reasonable definition of 'colonizing' as distinct form 'exploring' is that colonists plan to die there.
Diederich 10y ago
Yup, Re: the danger. Later on: Q: Who should be the first humans on Mars? Q: Who should be the first humans on Mars? A: The first journeys will be very dangerous, the risk of fatalities will be high. Likely no children - must be prepared to die. A: The first journeys will be very dangerous, the risk of fatalities will be high. Likely no children - must be prepared to die.

grecy 10y ago

Musk just answered a question that said you can come back if you want to. "The spaceship is coming back anyway, you can get on if you want. Free"

intrasight 10y ago
And if the company goes belly-up while you're there?
- aggie 10y ago
  If you can accept the risk of unpredictable, potentially-horrible death, you can accept the risk of getting stranded. There would probably be suicide measures for a scenario where life support runs out.
  - zardo 10y ago
    >There would probably be suicide measures for a scenario where life support runs out. That's a problem that really just takes care of itself.
- grecy 10y ago
  > And if the company goes belly-up while you're there? The same thing that would have happened to anyone on the moon if they had lander failure, or to anyone on the ISS if they have catastrophic failure. For that matter, the same thing that would have happened to the First Fleet if they had landed on Australia and been slaughtered in 10 minutes. Of course it's dangerous. Of course there is a real risk you won't come back. That's not a reason to not go, and each individual can make that choice on their own.

stepanhruda 10y ago

The point of being multiplanetary is if there is an extinction event on Earth, people survive on Mars. You don't need to _immediately_ be able to come back, although you need to be able to move off Mars at some point.