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This is awful logic. What happens if there's another financial downturn, causing you to not be able to sell your car? What happens if the price of oil goes wa

by daeken 10y ago

This is awful logic. What happens if there's another financial downturn, causing you to not be able to sell your car? What happens if the price of oil goes way down, causing the value of Teslas to drop dramatically? If you can't afford the car without others paying for it, you probably shouldn't sign for the loan. Hell, you shouldn't be able to get one in the first place.

xj9 10y ago
True, but it is a good sign that people are willing to do that to drive a good electric car. Tesla is going to make a killing whenever the Model 3 happens. I'm especially excited to see the other auto manufacturers responses. I'd like to have a variety of electric car options.
dotancohen 10y ago
> What happens if the price of oil goes way down, causing the > value of Teslas to drop dramatically? It is generally considered far more likely for the price of oil to go dramatically up, not down. Saudi Arabia is currently pumping at razor-thin margins. In the words of their oil minister (yes, they have one): "The stone age came to an end not due to lack of stones"
- bryanrasmussen 10y ago
  "The stone age came to an end not due to lack of stones" what does that even mean?!? It implies that there is not a lack of oil but the oil age will be coming to an end anyway. I think what he's actually trying to say is "we're running out of oil, but I can't say that".
  - runamok 10y ago
    As in better technology than fossil fuels is now available which will cause less oil demand over time. I have seen a lot of articles recently mentioning how several countries have a significant portion of their energy needs met by renewables. IIRC Costa Rica was one...
  - Arnt 10y ago
    The actual quote is roughly "the stone age didn't end for lack of stones, the oil age won't end for lack of oil", and he was saying that the oil age would end when the price of newly developed oil fields rose above the level where consumers would choose to spend their money in other ways. I think he also said that "there'll always be a trickle of oil being produced at $1000/barrel" but maybe that was at another time.
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    >what does that even mean? It's precisely analogous: the age of oil will be "over" long before we run out of oil. That's how resource economics work.
    - tamana 10y ago
      It's not. The stone age ended because we invented better tech, without raising stone prices. Oil costs will rise.
      - nickff 10y ago
        Not all stones are equally useful for tools. For example, your tribe may run out of easily accessible obsidian, which is essentially a cost increase.
- Arnt 10y ago
  Not the current one, that was Yamani, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Zaki_Yamani https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Zaki_Yamani I agree that the the price of oil is more likely to increase. It's common sense: The oil companies prefer to develop the cheapest (simplest, most accessible) fields first, so every time a field empties they replace its output with oil from a more expensive field, or not if the new field seems too expensive at the current price level. But that doesn't that indebted car owners are safe. Oil producers can't cut production all that much (geology doesn't work that way) so the price can certainly drop in the short term. A few years later it'll have increased again, but in the meantime the bank might have impounded the car.
  - zwily 10y ago
    Why would gas prices dropping mean you can't afford your car payments all the sudden?
    - csydas 10y ago
      Reread, the commenter was referring to when prices were up in respect to missed payments.
    - Arnt 10y ago
      A parent comment asked "what happens if the price of oil goes way down, causing the value of Teslas to drop dramatically?" implying "so people won't rent your Tesla, which you expected to pay with the rental fees". I can think of bigger risks. But anyway, that's the connection, tenuous as it may be.
  - Trombone12 10y ago
    On the other hand there is a limit on the amount of Oil we can take up per the not-doom-the-world requirement, and current known reserves surpass this limit meaning that its better to sell now before you don't get to sell at all.
- melvinmt 10y ago
  And here's another quote: (oil) markets can stay irrational longer than (Tesla) can stay solvent.
- mseebach 10y ago
  > It is generally considered far more likely for the price of oil to go dramatically up, not down When everybody agrees, someone is not thinking. So it was in 2014. And with houses in 2008. And .com stock in 1999. There are any number of low-but-not-zero-probability events that can cause the price of oil to start rising very quickly. Including the collapse of the House of Saud.
dismantlethesun 10y ago
Shouldn't? Forgive me, but it sounds like you're making a moral judgement here. If there's a downturn and a loaned car can't be sold privately, then the car is simply repossessed and auctioned off. These things are all contractual, and in a properly setup system the company shouldn't make any losses over all their loans, regardless of a few pettering out. If you buy a car and rent it, that's suspiciously like simply running a business and many businesses run using loans both short term and long.

by daeken 10y ago

xj9 10y ago

True, but it is a good sign that people are willing to do that to drive a good electric car. Tesla is going to make a killing whenever the Model 3 happens. I'm especially excited to see the other auto manufacturers responses. I'd like to have a variety of electric car options.

dotancohen 10y ago

> What happens if the price of oil goes way down, causing the > value of Teslas to drop dramatically? It is generally considered far more likely for the price of oil to go dramatically up, not down. Saudi Arabia is currently pumping at razor-thin margins. In the words of their oil minister (yes, they have one): "The stone age came to an end not due to lack of stones"

bryanrasmussen 10y ago
"The stone age came to an end not due to lack of stones" what does that even mean?!? It implies that there is not a lack of oil but the oil age will be coming to an end anyway. I think what he's actually trying to say is "we're running out of oil, but I can't say that".
- runamok 10y ago
  As in better technology than fossil fuels is now available which will cause less oil demand over time. I have seen a lot of articles recently mentioning how several countries have a significant portion of their energy needs met by renewables. IIRC Costa Rica was one...
- Arnt 10y ago
  The actual quote is roughly "the stone age didn't end for lack of stones, the oil age won't end for lack of oil", and he was saying that the oil age would end when the price of newly developed oil fields rose above the level where consumers would choose to spend their money in other ways. I think he also said that "there'll always be a trickle of oil being produced at $1000/barrel" but maybe that was at another time.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >what does that even mean? It's precisely analogous: the age of oil will be "over" long before we run out of oil. That's how resource economics work.
  - tamana 10y ago
    It's not. The stone age ended because we invented better tech, without raising stone prices. Oil costs will rise.
    - nickff 10y ago
      Not all stones are equally useful for tools. For example, your tribe may run out of easily accessible obsidian, which is essentially a cost increase.
Arnt 10y ago
Not the current one, that was Yamani, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Zaki_Yamani https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Zaki_Yamani I agree that the the price of oil is more likely to increase. It's common sense: The oil companies prefer to develop the cheapest (simplest, most accessible) fields first, so every time a field empties they replace its output with oil from a more expensive field, or not if the new field seems too expensive at the current price level. But that doesn't that indebted car owners are safe. Oil producers can't cut production all that much (geology doesn't work that way) so the price can certainly drop in the short term. A few years later it'll have increased again, but in the meantime the bank might have impounded the car.
- zwily 10y ago
  Why would gas prices dropping mean you can't afford your car payments all the sudden?
  - csydas 10y ago
    Reread, the commenter was referring to when prices were up in respect to missed payments.
  - Arnt 10y ago
    A parent comment asked "what happens if the price of oil goes way down, causing the value of Teslas to drop dramatically?" implying "so people won't rent your Tesla, which you expected to pay with the rental fees". I can think of bigger risks. But anyway, that's the connection, tenuous as it may be.
- Trombone12 10y ago
  On the other hand there is a limit on the amount of Oil we can take up per the not-doom-the-world requirement, and current known reserves surpass this limit meaning that its better to sell now before you don't get to sell at all.
melvinmt 10y ago
And here's another quote: (oil) markets can stay irrational longer than (Tesla) can stay solvent.
mseebach 10y ago
> It is generally considered far more likely for the price of oil to go dramatically up, not down When everybody agrees, someone is not thinking. So it was in 2014. And with houses in 2008. And .com stock in 1999. There are any number of low-but-not-zero-probability events that can cause the price of oil to start rising very quickly. Including the collapse of the House of Saud.

dismantlethesun 10y ago

Shouldn't? Forgive me, but it sounds like you're making a moral judgement here. If there's a downturn and a loaned car can't be sold privately, then the car is simply repossessed and auctioned off. These things are all contractual, and in a properly setup system the company shouldn't make any losses over all their loans, regardless of a few pettering out. If you buy a car and rent it, that's suspiciously like simply running a business and many businesses run using loans both short term and long.