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I think you and the others have missed the point about jobs like personal trainers. We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years. What a coach brings y

by Tycho 10y ago

I think you and the others have missed the point about jobs like personal trainers. We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years. What a coach brings you is motivation, empathy, nuance and flexibility, understanding, conversation, the human touch. That's why that particular job sector, far from becoming redundant, is growing fast.

ZenoArrow 10y ago
> "We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years." Not at the level of sophistication we're likely to see in the near future (e.g. in the next 10 to 20 years). Whilst the human touch is nice and all, look at what happens when technology reaches the point when it can do most of what a human does. For example, automated checkouts in supermarkets are popular despite lacking the human touch. Whilst you may argue that personal trainers are an area people want the human touch with, perhaps some do, but I'd argue the technology only has to be "good enough" to negate this for many. An automated personal trainer can monitor your progress better than a human one (as it can be with you throughout your day), can motivate you through gamification, can adapt your training regime just as easily as a human can, etc... It may be a different experience to having a human personal trainer, but I didn't say the automated version had to be the same, it just has to be good enough. It should also be pointed out that the current growth in personal trainers is clearly a reaction to a surge in popularity in keeping fit. Personal trainers may be making the most of the halo effect that comes from this right now, but that says nothing about the future.
- Tycho 10y ago
  All the technologies for gamification, monitoring etc. seem to already exist in the mainstream. When do you predict the personal trainer jobs sector will die out?
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    Die out or be reduced? If we're talking about being reduced, I'd say 20 years from now the industry will be 50% of its current levels for paid human personal trainers. I'd predict the turning point will be about 3 years after VR becomes mass market. There's still going to remain a market for the human touch, as you say, so die out doesn't seem appropriate. Also, I should clarify, I do want a world where people help each other people get fitter. What I can see happening isn't a world where we're any less social than we already are, but rather I can see a world where paid social interaction is reduced. In other words, if personal training is a vocation, something that people take pleasure from regardless of the money, it'll exist just as strongly as before. Once you take money out of the equation you can see that our human-focused society can continue to thrive, plus money is not going to matter as much when we can meet our needs without needing to earn it.
    - Tycho 10y ago
      20yrs... ok. When do you think it will stop growing?
      - gremlinsinc 10y ago
        Is there a personal trainer that you can wear around your wrist, and possibly interface with a biometric chip inside your body that measures sugars/caloric intake and sends you automated feedback like: "Hey, you're overeating, is something wrong? Are you emotional eating?" -- or that charts and tracks every last ounce of calories burned, and can literally quantify the entire metabolic output of your body in a given day? What about one that can track which workouts actually keep you motivated longer, which diet foods you like better, just by watching your behavior? -- Nothing like this exists today, but it will, eventually. AI will be a lot like the AI in HER and it won't be very long of a wait, probably in 20 years or so..

by Tycho 10y ago

ZenoArrow 10y ago

> "We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years." Not at the level of sophistication we're likely to see in the near future (e.g. in the next 10 to 20 years). Whilst the human touch is nice and all, look at what happens when technology reaches the point when it can do most of what a human does. For example, automated checkouts in supermarkets are popular despite lacking the human touch. Whilst you may argue that personal trainers are an area people want the human touch with, perhaps some do, but I'd argue the technology only has to be "good enough" to negate this for many. An automated personal trainer can monitor your progress better than a human one (as it can be with you throughout your day), can motivate you through gamification, can adapt your training regime just as easily as a human can, etc... It may be a different experience to having a human personal trainer, but I didn't say the automated version had to be the same, it just has to be good enough. It should also be pointed out that the current growth in personal trainers is clearly a reaction to a surge in popularity in keeping fit. Personal trainers may be making the most of the halo effect that comes from this right now, but that says nothing about the future.

Tycho 10y ago
All the technologies for gamification, monitoring etc. seem to already exist in the mainstream. When do you predict the personal trainer jobs sector will die out?
- ZenoArrow 10y ago
  Die out or be reduced? If we're talking about being reduced, I'd say 20 years from now the industry will be 50% of its current levels for paid human personal trainers. I'd predict the turning point will be about 3 years after VR becomes mass market. There's still going to remain a market for the human touch, as you say, so die out doesn't seem appropriate. Also, I should clarify, I do want a world where people help each other people get fitter. What I can see happening isn't a world where we're any less social than we already are, but rather I can see a world where paid social interaction is reduced. In other words, if personal training is a vocation, something that people take pleasure from regardless of the money, it'll exist just as strongly as before. Once you take money out of the equation you can see that our human-focused society can continue to thrive, plus money is not going to matter as much when we can meet our needs without needing to earn it.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    20yrs... ok. When do you think it will stop growing?
    - gremlinsinc 10y ago
      Is there a personal trainer that you can wear around your wrist, and possibly interface with a biometric chip inside your body that measures sugars/caloric intake and sends you automated feedback like: "Hey, you're overeating, is something wrong? Are you emotional eating?" -- or that charts and tracks every last ounce of calories burned, and can literally quantify the entire metabolic output of your body in a given day? What about one that can track which workouts actually keep you motivated longer, which diet foods you like better, just by watching your behavior? -- Nothing like this exists today, but it will, eventually. AI will be a lot like the AI in HER and it won't be very long of a wait, probably in 20 years or so..