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Today a middle class person will have a doctor, a dentist, an accountant, and a lawyer. That list could extend to include personal trainer, geneticist, travel a

by Tycho 10y ago

Today a middle class person will have a doctor, a dentist, an accountant, and a lawyer. That list could extend to include personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist... The list is endless. Some things will allow people to monetise talents that previously were not easily monetised (imagine having a "sense of humour" coach), others will be highly specialised requiring years of education, others will be more like trades which a large percentage of the population could learn with adequate training.

ZenoArrow 10y ago
> "personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist..." Let me put it like this, why would you pay a human to do those things when a machine could do just as good/a better job? Even if AI-based solutions were still subpar compared to human practitioners of the professions you mention, they only have to be "good enough" to take over the mass market, as they're likely to be far cheaper than the human professional. However, the lack of job opportunities for humans need not be a problem. There are still plenty of things we enjoy doing, and could continue to enjoy doing on a voluntary basis. That way everyone wins, the machines take away the need to work to earn money, and humans get to spend their time doing things they enjoy. That's part of the reasoning behind UBI, to stop monetary needs getting in the way of making this future a reality.
- Tycho 10y ago
  I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization. How is a machine literally going to do these things? Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Is everyone going to install a home dermatology kit? I can't see it.
  - vertex-four 10y ago
    You think nobody would be interested in a personal trainer robot, but there'd be a substantiative jump in the number of people demanding new personal trainers?
    - Tycho 10y ago
      yes (unless the robots are like I, Robot level androids)
  - jacalata 10y ago
    > Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Why would you need a robot? Millions of people today already use video-guided workouts off YouTube or follow semi-customised apps that tell them what workout to do, etc.
    - Tycho 10y ago
      we've had that stuff for years, the number of personal trainers has dramatically increased in that time and continues to grow https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industry-statistics/ https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industr...
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    > "I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization." You can try, and depending on how close you are to retirement perhaps you'll succeed, but I'd argue future generations may not have this choice. Automation/AI is on course to touch every corner of human activity, it's not a question about if it's going to happen but rather how soon and who benefits. The idea behind UBI and other similar ideas is to let this upcoming change in our society be a force of good for all, rather than one that widens the gap between the rich and the poor. As to the personal assistant robots/AI, other replies have addressed the main points, but I would say to think more in terms of PC accessories if you're struggling to get your head around it. For example, what does a fitness coach need to do? Set out training and diet plans, monitor form and performance and motivate. An AI solution can so all of these things, and in terms of hardware all you need is a TV, a webcam (or something more advanced like a Kinect) and a heart rate monitor. In some ways the automated fitness coach/personal trainer is already possible, it's just a matter of refinement.
    - Tycho 10y ago
      I think you and the others have missed the point about jobs like personal trainers. We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years. What a coach brings you is motivation, empathy, nuance and flexibility, understanding, conversation, the human touch. That's why that particular job sector, far from becoming redundant, is growing fast.
      - ZenoArrow 10y ago
        > "We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years." Not at the level of sophistication we're likely to see in the near future (e.g. in the next 10 to 20 years). Whilst the human touch is nice and all, look at what happens when technology reaches the point when it can do most of what a human does. For example, automated checkouts in supermarkets are popular despite lacking the human touch. Whilst you may argue that personal trainers are an area people want the human touch with, perhaps some do, but I'd argue the technology only has to be "good enough" to negate this for many. An automated personal trainer can monitor your progress better than a human one (as it can be with you throughout your day), can motivate you through gamification, can adapt your training regime just as easily as a human can, etc... It may be a different experience to having a human personal trainer, but I didn't say the automated version had to be the same, it just has to be good enough. It should also be pointed out that the current growth in personal trainers is clearly a reaction to a surge in popularity in keeping fit. Personal trainers may be making the most of the halo effect that comes from this right now, but that says nothing about the future.

by Tycho 10y ago

ZenoArrow 10y ago

> "personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist..." Let me put it like this, why would you pay a human to do those things when a machine could do just as good/a better job? Even if AI-based solutions were still subpar compared to human practitioners of the professions you mention, they only have to be "good enough" to take over the mass market, as they're likely to be far cheaper than the human professional. However, the lack of job opportunities for humans need not be a problem. There are still plenty of things we enjoy doing, and could continue to enjoy doing on a voluntary basis. That way everyone wins, the machines take away the need to work to earn money, and humans get to spend their time doing things they enjoy. That's part of the reasoning behind UBI, to stop monetary needs getting in the way of making this future a reality.

Tycho 10y ago
I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization. How is a machine literally going to do these things? Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Is everyone going to install a home dermatology kit? I can't see it.
- vertex-four 10y ago
  You think nobody would be interested in a personal trainer robot, but there'd be a substantiative jump in the number of people demanding new personal trainers?
  - Tycho 10y ago
    yes (unless the robots are like I, Robot level androids)
- jacalata 10y ago
  > Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Why would you need a robot? Millions of people today already use video-guided workouts off YouTube or follow semi-customised apps that tell them what workout to do, etc.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    we've had that stuff for years, the number of personal trainers has dramatically increased in that time and continues to grow https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industry-statistics/ https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industr...
- ZenoArrow 10y ago
  > "I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization." You can try, and depending on how close you are to retirement perhaps you'll succeed, but I'd argue future generations may not have this choice. Automation/AI is on course to touch every corner of human activity, it's not a question about if it's going to happen but rather how soon and who benefits. The idea behind UBI and other similar ideas is to let this upcoming change in our society be a force of good for all, rather than one that widens the gap between the rich and the poor. As to the personal assistant robots/AI, other replies have addressed the main points, but I would say to think more in terms of PC accessories if you're struggling to get your head around it. For example, what does a fitness coach need to do? Set out training and diet plans, monitor form and performance and motivate. An AI solution can so all of these things, and in terms of hardware all you need is a TV, a webcam (or something more advanced like a Kinect) and a heart rate monitor. In some ways the automated fitness coach/personal trainer is already possible, it's just a matter of refinement.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    I think you and the others have missed the point about jobs like personal trainers. We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years. What a coach brings you is motivation, empathy, nuance and flexibility, understanding, conversation, the human touch. That's why that particular job sector, far from becoming redundant, is growing fast.
    - ZenoArrow 10y ago
      > "We've had plenty of automated fitness stuff for years." Not at the level of sophistication we're likely to see in the near future (e.g. in the next 10 to 20 years). Whilst the human touch is nice and all, look at what happens when technology reaches the point when it can do most of what a human does. For example, automated checkouts in supermarkets are popular despite lacking the human touch. Whilst you may argue that personal trainers are an area people want the human touch with, perhaps some do, but I'd argue the technology only has to be "good enough" to negate this for many. An automated personal trainer can monitor your progress better than a human one (as it can be with you throughout your day), can motivate you through gamification, can adapt your training regime just as easily as a human can, etc... It may be a different experience to having a human personal trainer, but I didn't say the automated version had to be the same, it just has to be good enough. It should also be pointed out that the current growth in personal trainers is clearly a reaction to a surge in popularity in keeping fit. Personal trainers may be making the most of the halo effect that comes from this right now, but that says nothing about the future.