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Domestic labor for highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor, there is no reason any of your time should

Domestic labor for highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor, there is no reason any of your time should be devoted to driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom. Also, I'm not sure where your "160-250 million people" comes from. That's exactly how many workers there are today, many of whom are in no danger of having their jobs automated.

ZenoArrow 10y ago
> "driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom." All of which can be automated. Furthermore... > "highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor" None of those jobs are safe from automation either. Your personal productivity means diddly squat compared to fast automated interconnected machines that can teach themselves. Engineers and traders are just as expendable as the rest of us.
- Tycho 10y ago
  Today a middle class person will have a doctor, a dentist, an accountant, and a lawyer. That list could extend to include personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist... The list is endless. Some things will allow people to monetise talents that previously were not easily monetised (imagine having a "sense of humour" coach), others will be highly specialised requiring years of education, others will be more like trades which a large percentage of the population could learn with adequate training.
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    > "personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist..." Let me put it like this, why would you pay a human to do those things when a machine could do just as good/a better job? Even if AI-based solutions were still subpar compared to human practitioners of the professions you mention, they only have to be "good enough" to take over the mass market, as they're likely to be far cheaper than the human professional. However, the lack of job opportunities for humans need not be a problem. There are still plenty of things we enjoy doing, and could continue to enjoy doing on a voluntary basis. That way everyone wins, the machines take away the need to work to earn money, and humans get to spend their time doing things they enjoy. That's part of the reasoning behind UBI, to stop monetary needs getting in the way of making this future a reality.
    - Tycho 10y ago
      I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization. How is a machine literally going to do these things? Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Is everyone going to install a home dermatology kit? I can't see it.
      - vertex-four 10y ago
        You think nobody would be interested in a personal trainer robot, but there'd be a substantiative jump in the number of people demanding new personal trainers?
        Tycho 10y ago
        yes (unless the robots are like I, Robot level androids)
      - jacalata 10y ago
        > Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Why would you need a robot? Millions of people today already use video-guided workouts off YouTube or follow semi-customised apps that tell them what workout to do, etc.
        Tycho 10y ago
        we've had that stuff for years, the number of personal trainers has dramatically increased in that time and continues to grow https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industry-statistics/ https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industr...
      - ZenoArrow 10y ago
        > "I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization." You can try, and depending on how close you are to retirement perhaps you'll succeed, but I'd argue future generations may not have this choice. Automation/AI is on course to touch every corner of human activity, it's not a question about if it's going to happen but rather how soon and who benefits. The idea behind UBI and other similar ideas is to let this upcoming change in our society be a force of good for all, rather than one that widens the gap between the rich and the poor. As to the personal assistant robots/AI, other replies have addressed the main points, but I would say to think more in terms of PC accessories if you're struggling to get your head around it. For example, what does a fitness coach need to do? Set out training and diet plans, monitor form and performance and motivate. An AI solution can so all of these things, and in terms of hardware all you need is a TV, a webcam (or something more advanced like a Kinect) and a heart rate monitor. In some ways the automated fitness coach/personal trainer is already possible, it's just a matter of refinement.
wott 10y ago
A few lords with an army of domestics. That's a brilliant model of society you envision. Since it seems perfectly acceptable to you, I guess you imagine yourself in the ranks of the lords, not in those of the lackeys.
ryuker16 10y ago
welcome to mexico and india

ZenoArrow 10y ago

> "driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom." All of which can be automated. Furthermore... > "highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor" None of those jobs are safe from automation either. Your personal productivity means diddly squat compared to fast automated interconnected machines that can teach themselves. Engineers and traders are just as expendable as the rest of us.

Tycho 10y ago
Today a middle class person will have a doctor, a dentist, an accountant, and a lawyer. That list could extend to include personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist... The list is endless. Some things will allow people to monetise talents that previously were not easily monetised (imagine having a "sense of humour" coach), others will be highly specialised requiring years of education, others will be more like trades which a large percentage of the population could learn with adequate training.
- ZenoArrow 10y ago
  > "personal trainer, geneticist, travel agent, dermatologist..." Let me put it like this, why would you pay a human to do those things when a machine could do just as good/a better job? Even if AI-based solutions were still subpar compared to human practitioners of the professions you mention, they only have to be "good enough" to take over the mass market, as they're likely to be far cheaper than the human professional. However, the lack of job opportunities for humans need not be a problem. There are still plenty of things we enjoy doing, and could continue to enjoy doing on a voluntary basis. That way everyone wins, the machines take away the need to work to earn money, and humans get to spend their time doing things they enjoy. That's part of the reasoning behind UBI, to stop monetary needs getting in the way of making this future a reality.
  - Tycho 10y ago
    I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization. How is a machine literally going to do these things? Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Is everyone going to install a home dermatology kit? I can't see it.
    - vertex-four 10y ago
      You think nobody would be interested in a personal trainer robot, but there'd be a substantiative jump in the number of people demanding new personal trainers?
      - Tycho 10y ago
        yes (unless the robots are like I, Robot level androids)
    - jacalata 10y ago
      > Is everyone going to buy a personal trainer robot? Why would you need a robot? Millions of people today already use video-guided workouts off YouTube or follow semi-customised apps that tell them what workout to do, etc.
      - Tycho 10y ago
        we've had that stuff for years, the number of personal trainers has dramatically increased in that time and continues to grow https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industry-statistics/ https://blog.gyminsight.com/859-most-current-fitness-industr...
    - ZenoArrow 10y ago
      > "I'd rather stick with the tried and tested "earn a living" model of human civilization." You can try, and depending on how close you are to retirement perhaps you'll succeed, but I'd argue future generations may not have this choice. Automation/AI is on course to touch every corner of human activity, it's not a question about if it's going to happen but rather how soon and who benefits. The idea behind UBI and other similar ideas is to let this upcoming change in our society be a force of good for all, rather than one that widens the gap between the rich and the poor. As to the personal assistant robots/AI, other replies have addressed the main points, but I would say to think more in terms of PC accessories if you're struggling to get your head around it. For example, what does a fitness coach need to do? Set out training and diet plans, monitor form and performance and motivate. An AI solution can so all of these things, and in terms of hardware all you need is a TV, a webcam (or something more advanced like a Kinect) and a heart rate monitor. In some ways the automated fitness coach/personal trainer is already possible, it's just a matter of refinement.

wott 10y ago

A few lords with an army of domestics. That's a brilliant model of society you envision. Since it seems perfectly acceptable to you, I guess you imagine yourself in the ranks of the lords, not in those of the lackeys.

ryuker16 10y ago

welcome to mexico and india