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I disagree it is more probable that, "ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, a

I disagree it is more probable that, "ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries." Generally, crime is on the decline, even as we see technology and economies evolve to include more automation and less human labor: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/violent-crime/violent-crime-topic-page/violentcrimemain_final https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-... http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/what-caused-the-crime-decline/477408/ http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/what-cau... http://www.citylab.com/crime/2015/09/violent-crime-rates-still-declining/408103/ http://www.citylab.com/crime/2015/09/violent-crime-rates-sti... https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/americas-faulty-perception-crime-rates https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/americas-faulty-perceptio... The most probable outcome is that societies adjust, and that is likely to include implementations of a basic income. In the US I doubt it will be sweeping in any manner. Rather certain "life-necessities," and "lifestyle standards" will be implemented piece-meal over long periods of time.

klenwell 10y ago
I think both you and @anovikov are on to something. A decline in crime is not incompatible with increasing law enforcement expenditures and the general militarization of civilian police forces that been much lamented here and elsewhere. Nor is a decline in crime in the recent past incompatible with an uptick in crime rates in the present and near future. (Some reference to recent national crime statistics -- especially property crime -- might be in order here but I can't find a reliable one offhand.) As far as societal adjustment, this episode of This American Life, a couple years old already, takes a detailed look at how a de facto pilot program in Guaranteed Basic Income is already being "implemented piece-meal" in the U.S.: http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/490/trends-with-benefits http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/490/t... I've seen this linked here before and it really is a great eye-opening journalistic investigation of the issue. Will this scale? Would a more transparent implementation be politically palatable in the US? I think this is one of the fundamental issues starting to get worked out in the current US presidential election with Sanders millenials tending to support an implementation of lifestyles standards like those found in European social democracies and Trump boomers seeming to suggest that protectionism and a re-assertion of vague nativistic principles will restore the lifestyle standards that well-paying blue collar jobs provided for them and their parents in the past.
enraged_camel 10y ago
Actually, the decrease in crime can largely be attributed to the the decrease in atmospheric lead (coming from lead-based gasoline and paint), which was proven to interact with children's brain chemistry such that it resulted in hyperactivity and behavioral problems later in life. http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure...

klenwell 10y ago

I think both you and @anovikov are on to something. A decline in crime is not incompatible with increasing law enforcement expenditures and the general militarization of civilian police forces that been much lamented here and elsewhere. Nor is a decline in crime in the recent past incompatible with an uptick in crime rates in the present and near future. (Some reference to recent national crime statistics -- especially property crime -- might be in order here but I can't find a reliable one offhand.) As far as societal adjustment, this episode of This American Life, a couple years old already, takes a detailed look at how a de facto pilot program in Guaranteed Basic Income is already being "implemented piece-meal" in the U.S.: http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/490/trends-with-benefits http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/490/t... I've seen this linked here before and it really is a great eye-opening journalistic investigation of the issue. Will this scale? Would a more transparent implementation be politically palatable in the US? I think this is one of the fundamental issues starting to get worked out in the current US presidential election with Sanders millenials tending to support an implementation of lifestyles standards like those found in European social democracies and Trump boomers seeming to suggest that protectionism and a re-assertion of vague nativistic principles will restore the lifestyle standards that well-paying blue collar jobs provided for them and their parents in the past.

enraged_camel 10y ago

Actually, the decrease in crime can largely be attributed to the the decrease in atmospheric lead (coming from lead-based gasoline and paint), which was proven to interact with children's brain chemistry such that it resulted in hyperactivity and behavioral problems later in life. http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure...