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Upfront, I want to say that I agree with just-about everything that you have written here. I would have upvoted you and move on if it weren't for the lame "plac
by yes_or_gnome 10y ago
Upfront, I want to say that I agree with just-about everything that you have written here. I would have upvoted you and move on if it weren't for the lame "placebo seat" comment. It's beyond me as to how anyone could watch that talk and agree with Mr Levitt's conclusions.
He flat out admits that his only sources of his "research" are 1) the DoT NHTSA's FARS [0] and 2) four crash tests that were run by an anonymous test center.
I can't think of a better example of a red herring argument. He's basically saying, "Don't bother second guessing my data because I have these videos from a person who will NOT collaborate the results."
The FARS data is heavily biased as well. First, it only reports _accidents with fatalities_. It's a completely voluntary survey, it's up to state and local governments to enforce their police jurisdictions to comply. At the time of the video it spanned 30 years of data, 1975-2005. There's incredible amounts car safety improvements in that time frame. I'll defer to an expert here, but air bags and crumble zones will top that lists; I'm sure there have been improvements to seat belts and car seats in that time. Point being, most of that data is irrelevant.
And, then his ego shines through when he glorifies economists superiority over "scientists" because economists "look at real world data"; if his opening wasn't awkward wretch inducing already, then that surely should have done it.
If you want to be an advocate for Mr. Levitt's ideas proceeding for actual scientific inquiry, have at it. But, don't spread a cockamamie pejorative, like "placebo seat", because you watched a terrible TED talk.
I can't help, but feel my response was overkill for having taken offense from two words. I attempted to find some follow up studies based on Levitt's TED talk, but as it should be to nobody's surprise, neither side seems to have taken it seriously (to progress nor retort). The only source that I found which I actually liked is called "What If These TED Talks Were Horribly Wrong?" [1]. In which, Levitt gets top billing, and there is link to a study called "Effectiveness of Child Safety Seats vs Seat Belts in Reducing Risk for Death in Children in Passenger Vehicle Crashes" [2]; it's freely available, but I have yet to read it.
[0] U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Fatality Analysis Report System, http://www.nhtsa.gov/FARS http://www.nhtsa.gov/FARS
[1] https://theawl.com/what-if-these-ted-talks-were-horribly-unspeakably-wrong-c4b94e2c4824 https://theawl.com/what-if-these-ted-talks-were-horribly-uns...
[2] http://archpedi.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=205063 http://archpedi.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=20506...
- meowface 10y agoIt seems like a good majority of TED talks are based far more on flashy presentation and emotion than hard fact.
- Noseshine 10y agoSo what about your own seemingly mostly emotion-based blanket one-sentence statement that omits even the attempt of citing prove, or even to actually examine the issue you present? Relevant ancient educational tiny story: https://riddlesbrainteasers.com/three-philosophers-tree/ https://riddlesbrainteasers.com/three-philosophers-tree/ I got an epiphany moment about that story when I read a story about a medical doctor visiting a "quack" conference. There was one "esoteric" who complained about the others being "esoteric" (he practiced something else than the others, but still something weird), and the doctor looking down on them all. But the crowning part of that story was that the doctor herself held a believe by now proven to be wrong by studies. So they were all laughing about each other, in addition to the original three-philosopher problem this anecdote included a hierarchy (I am better than you), going over several levels, and it turned out the person who thought was at the top looking down on everybody else actually wasn't and should have had a good look in the mirror herself. The hint should have been seeing that one guy lamenting that all the others were esoteric, but introspection based up on what we see in others isn't many people's string suit. No, (only) they are "stupid". The philosophers in the little ancient Greek story/riddle managed to get to the truth by including themselves into their logical reasoning and not just think about the others. When you come to a conclusion about other people, always consider if/how it applies to yourself. The more modern saying is that about throwing stones in a glass house... but it lacks the educational value of the three philosopher problem because it's only the "TL;DT" (too long, didn't think).
- zAy0LfpBZLC8mAC 10y agoWhether it is reasonable to believe something does not depend on whether it is true (because you can't know that), but on whether it is the currently best-known explanation of the available evidence. Quacks aren't stupid because what they believe isn't true, but because they believe it without sufficient evidence, or, often enough, despite evidence to the contrary.