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For all the talk about the "Great Recession", most of the statistics I've seen show that the recession of the early 1980s was as bad if not worse. So it does se

by gruseom 17y ago

For all the talk about the "Great Recession", most of the statistics I've seen show that the recession of the early 1980s was as bad if not worse. So it does seem as if this downturn has been somewhat oversold, perhaps because the drama surrounding it was on a scale not seen since the 1930s. That seems reason enough to predict that the recovery will be faster than many people are expecting. The real question is more long-term. Will the structural problems that created the crisis be addressed or will the foundation continue to rot?

startuprules 17y ago
We’re in a great global depression, and it’s only the beginning. Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. My point? Build your business to be lean, and get ready for 15+ years of rough waters ahead.
- evgen 17y ago
 Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. Unlikely. There will be financial instability as these countries are forced to accept some fiscal responsibility, but the weak Euro zone countries will be painfully/grudgingly propped up by Germany et al. while the US is starting to slowly grow its way out of a lot of problems. Debt is a problem that will obviously need to be addressed, but anyone who makes a big bet on wide-scale currency defaults is going to lose their shirt. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. You mean they are now leaving jobs and becoming full-time consumers? Oh horror! Those jobs they are leaving will need replacement workers, and the aging boomers will require new services (services which can't easily be outsourced) from the remaining employment pool. The boomer retirement wave may end up being a major win for the US economy in the next decade or two. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. And creating completely new jobs and services. Large-scale manufacturing has been dead in this country for more than a generation and no one is placing a big bet on it returning. If automation gets better it is a threat for low-cost manufacturing and ends up being a net win for the US.
hga 17y ago
I lived through the late '70s-early '80s recession and this one is very different in nature and which stage of the game we're in. It's more like the early '70s or maybe earlier than that (I forget just when LBJ dragged down the economy). (Not that they were equal in magnitude, just that I think we're at an early part of what's going to be a many years process ... and that we're not going in the right direction yet.)
robak 17y ago
this recession haven't started yet. Wait for sky-high interest rates (no access to credit), rising prices AND growing unemployment. I don't think Mr. Market has really started yet. And in reality this recession is going on since 2000. In gold terms DJIA is at 10 ounces - in real terms DJIA has been falling since 2000... you can't have valid economy built on debt, services, smoke & mirrors.

by gruseom 17y ago

startuprules 17y ago

We’re in a great global depression, and it’s only the beginning. Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. My point? Build your business to be lean, and get ready for 15+ years of rough waters ahead.

evgen 17y ago
Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. Unlikely. There will be financial instability as these countries are forced to accept some fiscal responsibility, but the weak Euro zone countries will be painfully/grudgingly propped up by Germany et al. while the US is starting to slowly grow its way out of a lot of problems. Debt is a problem that will obviously need to be addressed, but anyone who makes a big bet on wide-scale currency defaults is going to lose their shirt. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. You mean they are now leaving jobs and becoming full-time consumers? Oh horror! Those jobs they are leaving will need replacement workers, and the aging boomers will require new services (services which can't easily be outsourced) from the remaining employment pool. The boomer retirement wave may end up being a major win for the US economy in the next decade or two. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. And creating completely new jobs and services. Large-scale manufacturing has been dead in this country for more than a generation and no one is placing a big bet on it returning. If automation gets better it is a threat for low-cost manufacturing and ends up being a net win for the US.

hga 17y ago

I lived through the late '70s-early '80s recession and this one is very different in nature and which stage of the game we're in. It's more like the early '70s or maybe earlier than that (I forget just when LBJ dragged down the economy). (Not that they were equal in magnitude, just that I think we're at an early part of what's going to be a many years process ... and that we're not going in the right direction yet.)

robak 17y ago

this recession haven't started yet. Wait for sky-high interest rates (no access to credit), rising prices AND growing unemployment. I don't think Mr. Market has really started yet. And in reality this recession is going on since 2000. In gold terms DJIA is at 10 ounces - in real terms DJIA has been falling since 2000... you can't have valid economy built on debt, services, smoke & mirrors.