4 ms·

Why US recovery will be bigger, faster, and stronger than economists expect?

17 points by cwan 17y ago

cryptnoob 17y ago
If you strip out all of his rewriting of history, you are left with a single half paragraph that forms the evidence on which the premise of his article rests. The Dow Jones industrial average, hovering near 11,000, is up 70 percent in the past year, and auto sales in the first quarter were up 16 percent from 2009. The economy added 162,000 jobs in March, including 17,000 in manufacturing. The dollar has gained strength ... I could comment on whether these four data points actually are real and actually bode well or ill for long term economic health, but I don't need to. Seeing them there, shivering alone in that single paragraph, unprotected by flowery prose, should let you evaluate that for yourself.
- pavs 17y ago
  I think it will be helpful if you could point out why you have a problem with that statement and why that statement alone negates the whole article. This is not the first time that everyone is screaming about the doom and gloom of US economy and its standing in the world, it happens once in almost every decade. While I don't agree with the author's choice of hyperbolic words but I don't see any reason why USA can't get back to its way of dominating the world economy. I am not an economist so I could be wrong. But I also know that economic predictions by some of the best economists in the world has been as good your local whether channel guy. So when they all cry about how US is going down in flames, it makes be a little happy knowing that how often they are wrong about everything.
  - cryptnoob 17y ago
    That statement alone doesn't negate the article. That statement alone IS the whole article. The rest of the article has no substance. Read it again if you don't believe me. As for me picking apart those data points, it wouldn't be interesting. Even if you agree that all is golden here in Eden, you hopefully are aware of the argument of those who say it's not. For me to state it again is boring. If you really don't know, get googling!
  - startuprules 17y ago
    1.) The Dow Jones industrial average, hovering near 11,000, is up 70 percent in the past year - Low volume trading (most people have already bailed out of stock market), mainly between JPM and GS computers (look at how much C and BA comprises of the trading volume). 2.) Auto sales in the first quarter were up 16 percent from 2009. - Off 50% lows in 2008. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S410LoDr97I/AAAAAAAAHpw/gu38MKWD0Rk/s1600-h/AutoFeb20102.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S410LoDr97I/AAAAAAAAHp.... That's on top of massive deals from Toyota and the rest. 3.) The economy added 162,000 jobs in March, including 17,000 in manufacturing. - 200,000 of those jobs were from Census. 4.) The dollar has gained strength - Because it is the reserve currency, it will be the last to fall. All currency races to the bottom Mainstream medias are for propagandas. Look elsewhere for real informations (calculatedriskblog.com, zerohedge.com, mish's, etc)
    - pavs 17y ago
      Ok, thanks for the pointers. I don't actually watch TV or follow any mainstream media (unless you consider NYT as one). On number 3 I think you got your numbers wrong. On March economy did include 162k jobs, 200k from temp census jobs. Wouldn't the total be higher than 162k jobs added?
      - thewileyone 17y ago
        Maybe because there was a loss of 238k jobs in other sectors ...
    - ippisl 17y ago
      the news report that 48000 new census jobs were added in march. where do you get the 200,000 number?
    - raintrees 17y ago
      I have heard repeatedly from multiple sources that the Census is only responsible for less than half that 200,000 so far, as they have not finished hiring. Therefore the other jobs are referred to as "permanent"... http://www.texasinsider.org/?p=24813 http://www.texasinsider.org/?p=24813
  - hga 17y ago
    Errr...: The DJIA might be in a bubble ... look at the history of it after the 1929 crash, it doesn't just go straight down. Things were perceived to be very bad in 1Q09 ... a small increase in auto sales a year later means little. A snapshot of one month's job gains isn't worth much. From vague memory, please correct, we've got something like an overhand of 6-8 million workers reflected in U-6 who are trying to get back to U-3 (the unemployment rate that everyone reports, that's currently at 9.7%). The economy has to add something like 1.8 million jobs every year just to keep even with the new entrants in the job force. If my memory of that figure is correct, if we maintained the March rate we'd continue to just stay afloat, without decreasing any of the unemployment figures. ADDED: I forgot about the once in a decade Census jobs boom. The dollar can do well as a safe haven if things are not so good elsewhere. Greece/the Eurozone, the tottering U.K., Iran (and all the oil it ships) ... bad news abroad is good news for us. Although ... just how big is the world's appetite for US government debt? Anyway, it's very thin gruel to be saying we're in a serious recovery, at best I'd say it looks like an L.
    - MaysonL 17y ago
      Here's a graph showing how bad the current recession is wrt jobs loss compared to previous: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S7kz7N40TqI/AAAAAAAAH9w/m_FuQLbGqiM/s1600/JobLossesAlignedBottom.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S7kz7N40TqI/AAAAAAAAH9... Doesn't look all that promising for a speedy recovery.
  - Hoff 17y ago
    Whether or not you believe Mr Ritholtz or the WSJ is your call, but here's one review of some data and a look forward: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/worst-post-wwii-recession/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/worst-post-wwii-recessi... http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/retail-jobs-suggest-strong-recovery/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/retail-jobs-suggest-str...
- TomOfTTB 17y ago
  I'll comment on them :) Seriously I don't mean to be doom and gloom here but his points aren't all that valid. The Dow is up 70% but it was down even more. We fell from 14,093 and are only up to 10,997. Beyond that stocks are really just the combined value of U.S. Corporations. No one was claiming corporations were over valued 3 years ago. So the drop in stock values was really an over reaction based on the rest of the economy and values going back up is really just a correction of that over reaction not a sign of growth. The jobs numbers are deceiving. Half were temporary work (Census or Farm related) which we're going to lose at the end of the year. Broad unemployment actually ticked up .1% in March. The Dollar's value is increasing again but that's after a significant drop late last year. The dollar is still 6% lower than it was last year at this time. American car company sales were actually below estimates. Toyota was the company that showed major growth (41%) and that was largely because they offered downright crazy incentives to draw in sales after their recent technical troubles There are also factors they omitted... Personal Bankruptcies were up 35% last month (the highest increase since the law was changed in 2005) Earnings fell last month by $.02 Plus health care costs (and taxes for health care) are going to go up in the near term. That's not an argument for or against health care in that even Democrats admit they're pursuing a long term goal and that there will be some pain in the short term in order to do that. But that pain is going to hurt the economy by giving people less money to spend
- yters 17y ago
  Your comment is an example of why I wish we could save comments as well as posts by upvoting. Horrible article, excellent comment.
silverbug 17y ago
USA is bankrupt! Listen to Peter Schiff, check his predictions and how well they almost all came true. Now it's time for the final one. Dollar collapse! This whole crisis will make Great Depression look like walk in the park. Expect riots like in Greece. No doubt about it!
- cryptnoob 17y ago
  Hmmm, your prose comes off sarcastic, but your username implies you're serious... Ahh, a 4 minute old account. Why was it worth it to go to that effort?
gruseom 17y ago
For all the talk about the "Great Recession", most of the statistics I've seen show that the recession of the early 1980s was as bad if not worse. So it does seem as if this downturn has been somewhat oversold, perhaps because the drama surrounding it was on a scale not seen since the 1930s. That seems reason enough to predict that the recovery will be faster than many people are expecting. The real question is more long-term. Will the structural problems that created the crisis be addressed or will the foundation continue to rot?
- startuprules 17y ago
 We’re in a great global depression, and it’s only the beginning. Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. My point? Build your business to be lean, and get ready for 15+ years of rough waters ahead.
 - evgen 17y ago
 Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. Unlikely. There will be financial instability as these countries are forced to accept some fiscal responsibility, but the weak Euro zone countries will be painfully/grudgingly propped up by Germany et al. while the US is starting to slowly grow its way out of a lot of problems. Debt is a problem that will obviously need to be addressed, but anyone who makes a big bet on wide-scale currency defaults is going to lose their shirt. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. You mean they are now leaving jobs and becoming full-time consumers? Oh horror! Those jobs they are leaving will need replacement workers, and the aging boomers will require new services (services which can't easily be outsourced) from the remaining employment pool. The boomer retirement wave may end up being a major win for the US economy in the next decade or two. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. And creating completely new jobs and services. Large-scale manufacturing has been dead in this country for more than a generation and no one is placing a big bet on it returning. If automation gets better it is a threat for low-cost manufacturing and ends up being a net win for the US.
silverbug 17y ago
"USA can't get back to its way of dominating the world economy." Maybe becauze USA is financed by the China, Japan & Saudis. And they have their own problems so buying of US bonds right now is falling like a stone. When the rest of the world will stop throwing money on bankrupted USA then it's done. Technically speaking many US states have much worst fiscal situation that Greece. But Greece can't print money like USA, thats why to SHTF are coming earlier. But printing money never was a real solution to problems. If it was then Zimbabwe would be super power. Go on youtube and find "Peter Schiff was right". There you have an economist who exactly predicted what happend. He even predicted the response of the US politcal class too this problems.

17 points by cwan 17y ago

If you strip out all of his rewriting of history, you are left with a single half paragraph that forms the evidence on which the premise of his article rests. The Dow Jones industrial average, hovering near 11,000, is up 70 percent in the past year, and auto sales in the first quarter were up 16 percent from 2009. The economy added 162,000 jobs in March, including 17,000 in manufacturing. The dollar has gained strength ... I could comment on whether these four data points actually are real and actually bode well or ill for long term economic health, but I don't need to. Seeing them there, shivering alone in that single paragraph, unprotected by flowery prose, should let you evaluate that for yourself.

pavs 17y ago
I think it will be helpful if you could point out why you have a problem with that statement and why that statement alone negates the whole article. This is not the first time that everyone is screaming about the doom and gloom of US economy and its standing in the world, it happens once in almost every decade. While I don't agree with the author's choice of hyperbolic words but I don't see any reason why USA can't get back to its way of dominating the world economy. I am not an economist so I could be wrong. But I also know that economic predictions by some of the best economists in the world has been as good your local whether channel guy. So when they all cry about how US is going down in flames, it makes be a little happy knowing that how often they are wrong about everything.
- cryptnoob 17y ago
  That statement alone doesn't negate the article. That statement alone IS the whole article. The rest of the article has no substance. Read it again if you don't believe me. As for me picking apart those data points, it wouldn't be interesting. Even if you agree that all is golden here in Eden, you hopefully are aware of the argument of those who say it's not. For me to state it again is boring. If you really don't know, get googling!
- startuprules 17y ago
  1.) The Dow Jones industrial average, hovering near 11,000, is up 70 percent in the past year - Low volume trading (most people have already bailed out of stock market), mainly between JPM and GS computers (look at how much C and BA comprises of the trading volume). 2.) Auto sales in the first quarter were up 16 percent from 2009. - Off 50% lows in 2008. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S410LoDr97I/AAAAAAAAHpw/gu38MKWD0Rk/s1600-h/AutoFeb20102.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S410LoDr97I/AAAAAAAAHp.... That's on top of massive deals from Toyota and the rest. 3.) The economy added 162,000 jobs in March, including 17,000 in manufacturing. - 200,000 of those jobs were from Census. 4.) The dollar has gained strength - Because it is the reserve currency, it will be the last to fall. All currency races to the bottom Mainstream medias are for propagandas. Look elsewhere for real informations (calculatedriskblog.com, zerohedge.com, mish's, etc)
  - pavs 17y ago
    Ok, thanks for the pointers. I don't actually watch TV or follow any mainstream media (unless you consider NYT as one). On number 3 I think you got your numbers wrong. On March economy did include 162k jobs, 200k from temp census jobs. Wouldn't the total be higher than 162k jobs added?
    - thewileyone 17y ago
      Maybe because there was a loss of 238k jobs in other sectors ...
  - ippisl 17y ago
    the news report that 48000 new census jobs were added in march. where do you get the 200,000 number?
  - raintrees 17y ago
    I have heard repeatedly from multiple sources that the Census is only responsible for less than half that 200,000 so far, as they have not finished hiring. Therefore the other jobs are referred to as "permanent"... http://www.texasinsider.org/?p=24813 http://www.texasinsider.org/?p=24813
- hga 17y ago
  Errr...: The DJIA might be in a bubble ... look at the history of it after the 1929 crash, it doesn't just go straight down. Things were perceived to be very bad in 1Q09 ... a small increase in auto sales a year later means little. A snapshot of one month's job gains isn't worth much. From vague memory, please correct, we've got something like an overhand of 6-8 million workers reflected in U-6 who are trying to get back to U-3 (the unemployment rate that everyone reports, that's currently at 9.7%). The economy has to add something like 1.8 million jobs every year just to keep even with the new entrants in the job force. If my memory of that figure is correct, if we maintained the March rate we'd continue to just stay afloat, without decreasing any of the unemployment figures. ADDED: I forgot about the once in a decade Census jobs boom. The dollar can do well as a safe haven if things are not so good elsewhere. Greece/the Eurozone, the tottering U.K., Iran (and all the oil it ships) ... bad news abroad is good news for us. Although ... just how big is the world's appetite for US government debt? Anyway, it's very thin gruel to be saying we're in a serious recovery, at best I'd say it looks like an L.
  - MaysonL 17y ago
    Here's a graph showing how bad the current recession is wrt jobs loss compared to previous: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S7kz7N40TqI/AAAAAAAAH9w/m_FuQLbGqiM/s1600/JobLossesAlignedBottom.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S7kz7N40TqI/AAAAAAAAH9... Doesn't look all that promising for a speedy recovery.
- Hoff 17y ago
  Whether or not you believe Mr Ritholtz or the WSJ is your call, but here's one review of some data and a look forward: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/worst-post-wwii-recession/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/worst-post-wwii-recessi... http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/retail-jobs-suggest-strong-recovery/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/retail-jobs-suggest-str...
TomOfTTB 17y ago
I'll comment on them :) Seriously I don't mean to be doom and gloom here but his points aren't all that valid. The Dow is up 70% but it was down even more. We fell from 14,093 and are only up to 10,997. Beyond that stocks are really just the combined value of U.S. Corporations. No one was claiming corporations were over valued 3 years ago. So the drop in stock values was really an over reaction based on the rest of the economy and values going back up is really just a correction of that over reaction not a sign of growth. The jobs numbers are deceiving. Half were temporary work (Census or Farm related) which we're going to lose at the end of the year. Broad unemployment actually ticked up .1% in March. The Dollar's value is increasing again but that's after a significant drop late last year. The dollar is still 6% lower than it was last year at this time. American car company sales were actually below estimates. Toyota was the company that showed major growth (41%) and that was largely because they offered downright crazy incentives to draw in sales after their recent technical troubles There are also factors they omitted... Personal Bankruptcies were up 35% last month (the highest increase since the law was changed in 2005) Earnings fell last month by $.02 Plus health care costs (and taxes for health care) are going to go up in the near term. That's not an argument for or against health care in that even Democrats admit they're pursuing a long term goal and that there will be some pain in the short term in order to do that. But that pain is going to hurt the economy by giving people less money to spend
yters 17y ago
Your comment is an example of why I wish we could save comments as well as posts by upvoting. Horrible article, excellent comment.

silverbug 17y ago

USA is bankrupt! Listen to Peter Schiff, check his predictions and how well they almost all came true. Now it's time for the final one. Dollar collapse! This whole crisis will make Great Depression look like walk in the park. Expect riots like in Greece. No doubt about it!

cryptnoob 17y ago
Hmmm, your prose comes off sarcastic, but your username implies you're serious... Ahh, a 4 minute old account. Why was it worth it to go to that effort?

gruseom 17y ago

For all the talk about the "Great Recession", most of the statistics I've seen show that the recession of the early 1980s was as bad if not worse. So it does seem as if this downturn has been somewhat oversold, perhaps because the drama surrounding it was on a scale not seen since the 1930s. That seems reason enough to predict that the recovery will be faster than many people are expecting. The real question is more long-term. Will the structural problems that created the crisis be addressed or will the foundation continue to rot?

startuprules 17y ago
We’re in a great global depression, and it’s only the beginning. Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. My point? Build your business to be lean, and get ready for 15+ years of rough waters ahead.
- evgen 17y ago
 Many countries are about to default (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Japan, US, England, etc), and there are overcapacity/overprinting everywhere. Unlikely. There will be financial instability as these countries are forced to accept some fiscal responsibility, but the weak Euro zone countries will be painfully/grudgingly propped up by Germany et al. while the US is starting to slowly grow its way out of a lot of problems. Debt is a problem that will obviously need to be addressed, but anyone who makes a big bet on wide-scale currency defaults is going to lose their shirt. The baby boomer generation, which constitutes the bulk of consumer segment, is retiring. You mean they are now leaving jobs and becoming full-time consumers? Oh horror! Those jobs they are leaving will need replacement workers, and the aging boomers will require new services (services which can't easily be outsourced) from the remaining employment pool. The boomer retirement wave may end up being a major win for the US economy in the next decade or two. Automation/computers are reducing jobs permanently. And creating completely new jobs and services. Large-scale manufacturing has been dead in this country for more than a generation and no one is placing a big bet on it returning. If automation gets better it is a threat for low-cost manufacturing and ends up being a net win for the US.

silverbug 17y ago

"USA can't get back to its way of dominating the world economy." Maybe becauze USA is financed by the China, Japan & Saudis. And they have their own problems so buying of US bonds right now is falling like a stone. When the rest of the world will stop throwing money on bankrupted USA then it's done. Technically speaking many US states have much worst fiscal situation that Greece. But Greece can't print money like USA, thats why to SHTF are coming earlier. But printing money never was a real solution to problems. If it was then Zimbabwe would be super power. Go on youtube and find "Peter Schiff was right". There you have an economist who exactly predicted what happend. He even predicted the response of the US politcal class too this problems.