4 ms·

So the US negotiators don't want to concede anything. So then one questions what they had in mind to convince the EU negotiators to go on with the deal...

toyg 10y ago
US elites got used to a very sweet state of things in transatlantic relations post-1989, and it got even better after 9/11. Steamrolling Europeans was almost too easy, because Euroelites had been fully co-opted by the American way. Unfortunately, 13 years of unpopular wars have taken their toll. There are now two generations of politically-active Europeans who were not invested in the Cold War, and see the US fundamentally as a big bully. Couple that with tight economic times (which, many feel, have been foisted upon us by reckless American finance), waves of unwanted migrants generated by US foreign policy, and the self-inflicted loss of influence of "Airstrip One" Britain over EU matters, and you have a situation where US negotiators likely found themselves surprised by European pushback on all sorts of topics.
- evgen 10y ago
  Possibly. An equally likely situation is that US leadership can see that the EU is falling apart. The UK is already headed out the door, the failure of EU banking and financial institutions given the current massive debt problems, and a collective that seems to only be able to solve their bleak demographic future by pulling in eastern European basket-cases that no one really wants to have in the union makes an EU trade deal less important. Why waste time dickering with a declining EU when you can get a better return on your efforts by improving trade with Asia and Africa?
  - kalleboo 10y ago
    TPP negotiations aren't doing too well either... Only Japan seems gung-ho about jumping into that basket. It's true an Asia deal is probably a bigger deal to the US, but not because Europe is unattractive but rather because they need to get in before China (which would explain why Japan is so eager despite it being unpopular with the citizenry)
  - toyg 10y ago
    > An equally likely situation is that US leadership can see that the EU is falling apart. TTIP was (and still is) a US-led effort. The only voices asking to keep it going are US negotiators' and Obama's. That wouldn't happen if they really thought the EU was in disarray. > the failure of EU banking and financial institutions Well, at least we did not have Lehman and Merryll Lynch... the powerless "EuroBundesbank" is a bit of a mess, but nothing that can't be solved by a better German government. > a collective that seems to only be able to solve their bleak demographic future by pulling in eastern European basket-cases that no one really wants to have in the union Those countries were brought in under pressure from the US and the UK, eager to solidify the Cold War victory and water down EU institutions. Other countries didn't object because hey, more markets close-by with cheap highly-educated workforce and internal industry in disarray, ready for the picking! Politicians naively thought their national champions would expand there, while they actually wanted (and got) to delocalize with minimal fuss. Nobody had any interest in some "bleak demographic future", it was just profit all the way down; and I can assure you that most industries still want those countries in (to the point where the only serious talk for post-Brexit plans is about ways to grant Eastern-European workers easy access to British companies). Among other things, they're the only ones still taking Christianity seriously, something that European elites still somewhat value. Europe has been in serious trouble before; compared to the last century or even the one before, this decade is barely a blip.

toyg 10y ago

US elites got used to a very sweet state of things in transatlantic relations post-1989, and it got even better after 9/11. Steamrolling Europeans was almost too easy, because Euroelites had been fully co-opted by the American way. Unfortunately, 13 years of unpopular wars have taken their toll. There are now two generations of politically-active Europeans who were not invested in the Cold War, and see the US fundamentally as a big bully. Couple that with tight economic times (which, many feel, have been foisted upon us by reckless American finance), waves of unwanted migrants generated by US foreign policy, and the self-inflicted loss of influence of "Airstrip One" Britain over EU matters, and you have a situation where US negotiators likely found themselves surprised by European pushback on all sorts of topics.

evgen 10y ago
Possibly. An equally likely situation is that US leadership can see that the EU is falling apart. The UK is already headed out the door, the failure of EU banking and financial institutions given the current massive debt problems, and a collective that seems to only be able to solve their bleak demographic future by pulling in eastern European basket-cases that no one really wants to have in the union makes an EU trade deal less important. Why waste time dickering with a declining EU when you can get a better return on your efforts by improving trade with Asia and Africa?
- kalleboo 10y ago
  TPP negotiations aren't doing too well either... Only Japan seems gung-ho about jumping into that basket. It's true an Asia deal is probably a bigger deal to the US, but not because Europe is unattractive but rather because they need to get in before China (which would explain why Japan is so eager despite it being unpopular with the citizenry)
- toyg 10y ago
  > An equally likely situation is that US leadership can see that the EU is falling apart. TTIP was (and still is) a US-led effort. The only voices asking to keep it going are US negotiators' and Obama's. That wouldn't happen if they really thought the EU was in disarray. > the failure of EU banking and financial institutions Well, at least we did not have Lehman and Merryll Lynch... the powerless "EuroBundesbank" is a bit of a mess, but nothing that can't be solved by a better German government. > a collective that seems to only be able to solve their bleak demographic future by pulling in eastern European basket-cases that no one really wants to have in the union Those countries were brought in under pressure from the US and the UK, eager to solidify the Cold War victory and water down EU institutions. Other countries didn't object because hey, more markets close-by with cheap highly-educated workforce and internal industry in disarray, ready for the picking! Politicians naively thought their national champions would expand there, while they actually wanted (and got) to delocalize with minimal fuss. Nobody had any interest in some "bleak demographic future", it was just profit all the way down; and I can assure you that most industries still want those countries in (to the point where the only serious talk for post-Brexit plans is about ways to grant Eastern-European workers easy access to British companies). Among other things, they're the only ones still taking Christianity seriously, something that European elites still somewhat value. Europe has been in serious trouble before; compared to the last century or even the one before, this decade is barely a blip.