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Ask HN: What was the chances the poland president die in a plane crash ?
I already heard it's about 1 on 10.5 millions for anyone, but what about the chances it was the president ?
- hga 17y agoReasonably low ... but I can't see appointing Putin to head the investigation as anything other than a slap in the face.
- regularfry 17y agoApparently it should be taken as significantly higher for Polish politicians, given the safety record of their air fleet. They had a previous prime minister survive a helicopter crash in 2003.
- rdl 17y agoTupolevs aren't exactly the safest of planes, and I think the President flew a lot more hours than most people. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there was pressure put on the aircrew to not divert from their schedule/destination, due to VIPs. I wouldn't rule out conspiracy theories, but I would definitely say there was a higher than baseline chance that the official story is what happened.
- CamperBob 17y agoThat's a complex question. The answer depends on whether there were more Poles on the left side of the plane, or the right.