I only agree with empirical economics when it is forward looking. If you have these great models that you've honed and can accurately predict ten of the last te

I only agree with empirical economics when it is forward looking. If you have these great models that you've honed and can accurately predict ten of the last ten recessions, but your model then goes on to predict 20 of the next zero recessions, I'd say you basically overfitted to your prejudices and your model is bunk. I get really wary of economists that "prove" their theories on back data but still can't predict worth shit. However, this guy sounds really interesting, and I've bookmarked him to go looking for this weekend. Thanks for the cites.