I agree. Humans intuitively use probabilities all of the time, but they are not necessarily proof that a crime has occurred. On the savannah, we did not need

I agree. Humans intuitively use probabilities all of the time, but they are not necessarily proof that a crime has occurred. On the savannah, we did not need to establish beyond a reasonable doubt that an animal was about to eat us. We HAD to err on the side of the worst possibility. Or we'd be dead.