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From 1871 to the end of 2015 returned 6.86% annualized in real dollars. Most 30-year periods you can pick out average either that or above, save a few odd perio
by tcoppi 10y ago
From 1871 to the end of 2015 returned 6.86% annualized in real dollars. Most 30-year periods you can pick out average either that or above, save a few odd periods. [1]
I use [2] to do most of my predictions. I think you are being way conservative with assuming a 4% withdrawal rate will only give you $10k real dollars on $1m invested, but everyone has different risk tolerances and assumptions :)
1. http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm
2. http://www.firecalc.com/ http://www.firecalc.com/
- FabHK 10y agoAgreed, 1% withdrawal is (hopefully) worst case. But given the last decade, 4% strikes me as not particularly conservative. Disclaimer: I'm looking primarily at Germany and HK, where growth and equity returns, respectively, have been lacklustre over the last decade. Though, even the S&P 500 has only made 2.5% p.a. since 2000.