4 ms·
You are assuming the rise will remain constant. It has only been rising slowly because the temperature change hasn't reached a tipping point that would trigger
by infinite8s 10y ago
You are assuming the rise will remain constant. It has only been rising slowly because the temperature change hasn't reached a tipping point that would trigger massive melting of polar ice.
- godshatter 10y agoThe rate of increase has been going up, too. When I first started watching all this, which was 10 years ago or so, the rate was at 3.2 +- 0.4 mm/yr rather than 3.4. I haven't seen an estimate of that acceleration anywhere that gets it just from the data and not from assumptions about models or tipping points. I haven't really looked that hard, though. I'm skeptical of tipping points. Right now, I'm taking a "just what I see in the data" approach because of how politicized everything is. I don't know what the future holds, but I'm not convinced, yet, that it's going to be a complete catastrophe.
- afarrell 10y agoNote that we only need to worry about the south pole and Greenland. Floating ice, like all floating objects, already displaces water equal to its mass, so if it melts it will not affect sea levels.