4 ms·
Personally, no, I don't think it is fair assumption. US GDP growth has been slowing for decades now. At some point that will be reflected in the markets and t
by nostromo 10y ago
Personally, no, I don't think it is fair assumption.
US GDP growth has been slowing for decades now. At some point that will be reflected in the markets and the index funds that track them.
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:USA&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...
(But, yes, I still invest in index funds. I just don't have the same dreamy expectations that many other people seem to have.)
- tcoppi 10y agoWe've also had some spectacularly high inflation in the past, which tempers those GDP numbers somewhat. I otherwise agree that historical norms for equity market returns are probably overly optimistic for the future, but I wouldn't be extremely pessimistic either.
- bobcostas55 10y agoThat growth rate is real, not nominal.
- tcoppi 10y agoSo it is. It isn't very clear looking at that chart though, unfortunately. Another reason why I prefer FRED for this kind of data [1]. 1. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA