5 ms·

You're addressing like 10% of the article. The article lays out tons of issues, including: 1. Shrinking product - this isn't about comparing to facebook, it's

by rm999 10y ago

You're addressing like 10% of the article. The article lays out tons of issues, including: 1. Shrinking product - this isn't about comparing to facebook, it's about comparing to 2015 twitter. 2. Unhappy employees - especially high turnover at the top, which is universally a bad sign. 3. Unhappy users - users spending way less time on twitter. 4. Unhappy investors - stock price is wayyy down. 5. Happy competitors - a lot of the "cultural significance" is moving to instagram, snapchat, and others. Twitter isn't a successful medium sized company, it's a large company that is in trouble. Maybe it will become a successful medium sized company one day, but that process will be painful for a lot of people.

pmontra 10y ago
It's not so bad to survive as a service for news and press releases. You can't do that very well on Instagram and definitely not on Snapchat. It means Twitter is going to shrink (points 1 to 4) but it will keep paying salaries. Not world domination but still a success.
- bronson 10y ago
  > Not world domination but still a success. Not to current and past Twitter investors. They expected a lot more.
  - B1FF_PSUVM 10y ago
    Such is life. Some Epictetus or Boethius salve on their wounds, and they'll be alright.
- MichaelGG 10y ago
  Isn't Twitter quite unprofitable? They may have raised money to be able to pay salaries but that's hardly a business, right?
- AJ007 10y ago
  They are losing money, so may be not. Both pieces of their business model, advertising and users, strongly benefit or hurt because of network effects. As the network shrinks, the value does not drop linearly. This is an assault from both sides. Because Twitter's growth is now definitely flat and likely is shrinking this is pretty bad. While you can't do X or Y on Instagram or Snapchat now doesn't mean you won't in the future. Clearly both took a big chunk of Twitter's users. Tweeting pictures was previously a large use case. So was tweeting and sharing things with friends. That you can create a video of what happened rather than typing it out isn't necessarily a different product or use case. In terms of news - FB, Google, Apple are all going after that market hard right now. The mass use case for Twitter probably made this sub use case look bigger than it was - news and instant events. Things could still change, but it is hard to see Twitter out-innovating their problems when they no longer have the social tail winds pushing them forward. And at some point the cash is going to matter a lot too. Does it make a lot of sense for someone with a lot of users to buy Twitter and try to revamp it? Plausibly, but the brand damage definitely has been done with the growth demographics. That is kind of the mistake Myspace's acquirers have made. At some point a brand goes from valuable to doing just the opposite. I bought Twitter shares and ended up selling them all once this settled in. There still probably is a threshold where an executive that is looking for value vs growth tries to acquire and you can arbitrage the difference. Unfortunately the bulk of Twitter's remaining value is probably going to be realized by there competitors as a case study for the survivors - FB/IG, Snapchat, and future players.
  - duaneb 10y ago
    None of Google, Apple, and FB have any public discourse worth reading, or even readable conversation threads at all. You're comparing apples and oranges.
    - glenstein 10y ago
      I wonder if a Google acquisition would be a natural step forward? It would tidily wrap up this tumultuous chapter in Twitter's history. And it would finally, at long last give Google something approximating a legitimate social network.
- rconti 10y ago
  I was thinking the same thing. Something about Twitter's model makes it virtually impossible to follow as a user (too much of a firehose problem), BUT news organizations who can afford to pay someone to sit on Twitter all day can find useful content on it to report. But if users lose enough interest, there won't be anyone to do free reporting for the news media.
rezashirazian 10y ago
You're making some broad generalization that are not necessary true. "Shrinking product" - This is not true. It's important to note that Twitter is not shrinking. It's simply not growing as fast as it used to. Generally this is not too bad for a company this size, considering the massive userbase it already has. Twitter only pales in comparison to Facebook. "Unhappy users" - People spending less time on Twitter does not mean they are unhappy with the product. Twitter does not lend itself to long and continuous browsing sessions like Facebook. It's just the nature of the product. People open it up, read a few tweets and then close it.
- fleitz 10y ago
  Twitter is a boat taking on water in a rising tide. Yes, the boat may be rising, but the boat is also taking on enough water that soon it will sink entirely to the bottom.
  - debaserab2 10y ago
    What does that even mean? Every journalist worth their salt uses it, and it's essentially the public front for any media facing company. Sure, every day users may be contributing less, but it still seems to be a pretty meaningful megaphone for brands. I don't exactly see that changing: I don't contribute to Twitter, but I do consume the tweets of brands / companies / significant people that publish them.
    - collyw 10y ago
      To me thats the problem. Its a tool for lazy journalists. The majority of us don't give a shit about twitter storms or whatever else is trending.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - fleitz 10y ago
      What good is a megaphone if there's no one listening? Twitter is dying despite every MSM site being like 'Look we're on twitter' start giving a shit about it even though no one even watches TV anymore.
duaneb 10y ago
Well twitter may lose employees, but is that really interesting? Twitter is certainly huge as a product and isn't going anywhere. In fact, I do not and never will use twitter for more than reading and sso--but it is still irreplaceable for that reading. Is twitter just the next newspaper?
perseusprime11 10y ago
You are partially correct. Things do take time especially product. It does look like there are some brightspots. For example this from recode: http://www.recode.net/2016/9/16/12943246/how-many-people-watched-nfl-twitter http://www.recode.net/2016/9/16/12943246/how-many-people-wat... Maybe they are onto something. Twitter is Live and Live is Twitter. and Live is all the rich interactions.

by rm999 10y ago

pmontra 10y ago

It's not so bad to survive as a service for news and press releases. You can't do that very well on Instagram and definitely not on Snapchat. It means Twitter is going to shrink (points 1 to 4) but it will keep paying salaries. Not world domination but still a success.

bronson 10y ago
> Not world domination but still a success. Not to current and past Twitter investors. They expected a lot more.
- B1FF_PSUVM 10y ago
  Such is life. Some Epictetus or Boethius salve on their wounds, and they'll be alright.
MichaelGG 10y ago
Isn't Twitter quite unprofitable? They may have raised money to be able to pay salaries but that's hardly a business, right?
AJ007 10y ago
They are losing money, so may be not. Both pieces of their business model, advertising and users, strongly benefit or hurt because of network effects. As the network shrinks, the value does not drop linearly. This is an assault from both sides. Because Twitter's growth is now definitely flat and likely is shrinking this is pretty bad. While you can't do X or Y on Instagram or Snapchat now doesn't mean you won't in the future. Clearly both took a big chunk of Twitter's users. Tweeting pictures was previously a large use case. So was tweeting and sharing things with friends. That you can create a video of what happened rather than typing it out isn't necessarily a different product or use case. In terms of news - FB, Google, Apple are all going after that market hard right now. The mass use case for Twitter probably made this sub use case look bigger than it was - news and instant events. Things could still change, but it is hard to see Twitter out-innovating their problems when they no longer have the social tail winds pushing them forward. And at some point the cash is going to matter a lot too. Does it make a lot of sense for someone with a lot of users to buy Twitter and try to revamp it? Plausibly, but the brand damage definitely has been done with the growth demographics. That is kind of the mistake Myspace's acquirers have made. At some point a brand goes from valuable to doing just the opposite. I bought Twitter shares and ended up selling them all once this settled in. There still probably is a threshold where an executive that is looking for value vs growth tries to acquire and you can arbitrage the difference. Unfortunately the bulk of Twitter's remaining value is probably going to be realized by there competitors as a case study for the survivors - FB/IG, Snapchat, and future players.
- duaneb 10y ago
  None of Google, Apple, and FB have any public discourse worth reading, or even readable conversation threads at all. You're comparing apples and oranges.
  - glenstein 10y ago
    I wonder if a Google acquisition would be a natural step forward? It would tidily wrap up this tumultuous chapter in Twitter's history. And it would finally, at long last give Google something approximating a legitimate social network.
rconti 10y ago
I was thinking the same thing. Something about Twitter's model makes it virtually impossible to follow as a user (too much of a firehose problem), BUT news organizations who can afford to pay someone to sit on Twitter all day can find useful content on it to report. But if users lose enough interest, there won't be anyone to do free reporting for the news media.

rezashirazian 10y ago

You're making some broad generalization that are not necessary true. "Shrinking product" - This is not true. It's important to note that Twitter is not shrinking. It's simply not growing as fast as it used to. Generally this is not too bad for a company this size, considering the massive userbase it already has. Twitter only pales in comparison to Facebook. "Unhappy users" - People spending less time on Twitter does not mean they are unhappy with the product. Twitter does not lend itself to long and continuous browsing sessions like Facebook. It's just the nature of the product. People open it up, read a few tweets and then close it.

fleitz 10y ago
Twitter is a boat taking on water in a rising tide. Yes, the boat may be rising, but the boat is also taking on enough water that soon it will sink entirely to the bottom.
- debaserab2 10y ago
  What does that even mean? Every journalist worth their salt uses it, and it's essentially the public front for any media facing company. Sure, every day users may be contributing less, but it still seems to be a pretty meaningful megaphone for brands. I don't exactly see that changing: I don't contribute to Twitter, but I do consume the tweets of brands / companies / significant people that publish them.
  - collyw 10y ago
    To me thats the problem. Its a tool for lazy journalists. The majority of us don't give a shit about twitter storms or whatever else is trending.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - fleitz 10y ago
    What good is a megaphone if there's no one listening? Twitter is dying despite every MSM site being like 'Look we're on twitter' start giving a shit about it even though no one even watches TV anymore.

duaneb 10y ago

Well twitter may lose employees, but is that really interesting? Twitter is certainly huge as a product and isn't going anywhere. In fact, I do not and never will use twitter for more than reading and sso--but it is still irreplaceable for that reading. Is twitter just the next newspaper?

perseusprime11 10y ago

You are partially correct. Things do take time especially product. It does look like there are some brightspots. For example this from recode: http://www.recode.net/2016/9/16/12943246/how-many-people-watched-nfl-twitter http://www.recode.net/2016/9/16/12943246/how-many-people-wat... Maybe they are onto something. Twitter is Live and Live is Twitter. and Live is all the rich interactions.