See also: Probability, The Logic Of Science, by E.T. Jaynes. http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Logic-Science-Vol/dp/0521592712 http://www.amazon.com/Pro

See also: Probability, The Logic Of Science, by E.T. Jaynes. http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Logic-Science-Vol/dp/0521592712 http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Logic-Science-Vol/d... Available here: http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf The introduction/first chapter has a nice example about a policeman concluding a crime is being committed that's very relevant here.