5 ms·

Colin Powell Says Israel Has 200 Nukes in Leaked Email

92 points by uptown 10y ago

koolba 10y ago
I'm pretty sure everybody assumes they've got nukes already. It's an open secret. Whether it's 100 or 200 at home doesn't really change much either.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- agumonkey 10y ago
  What worries me a bit is Isreal is a bit trigger sensitive and prone to throw stuff defensively. I hope they never reach nuclear level anxiety.
  - fit2rule 10y ago
    More worrying is the fact that Israel considers its secret nuclear arsenal to be a primary motivating force when dealing with its relations with Western nations. The 'Goliath' program has a very, very sinister purpose: to hold the world ransom with nuclear deterrents, such that Israel gets its way no matter what.
    - cema 10y ago
      This is becoming dangerously political. You think it is the fact, I think it is the opposite of the fact; not a good dialogue.
    - agumonkey 10y ago
      That's the only field use for Nukes anyway right ? Every country wants it as big muscle to show up to other neighbors in negotiations. I'm curious if the 200 count is growing or if it's only remains of the post WW2 nuclear spread.
  - cema 10y ago
    I think the history of the state of Israel shows it is much less than trigger sensitive.
    - agumonkey 10y ago
      Could you go on ? from my perspective Israel has always spread the notion that it's surrounded by predator states, justifying the constant expansion has a protective means.
      - cema 10y ago
        I could, but first we would need to see where our common points are. For instance, you mentioned "the constant expansion": how is that consistent with the Camp David accord, Oslo accords, the removal of the Gaza settlements?
danso 10y ago
While I think the subject of Powell's email getting hacked is very interesting -- he's admitted to the hack but have we learned any technical details regarding how his GMail account was breached? -- this doesn't appear to be a very newsworthy insight. First of all, he's not writing as a Secretary of State, so the number "200" could be conjecture, he certainly doesn't seem to be making an appeal to authority, i.e. "When I was at State, Israel told us etc etc etc". Who are the "boys in Tehran" who know that Israel has 200? CIA spies? The negotiators? Diplomats? Meanwhile, President Carter has been giving speeches and interviews about this for years: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/israel-nuclear-weapons-secret-united-states/380237/ http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/isr... > Former CIA Director Robert Gates said so during his 2006 Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of defense, when he noted—while serving as a university president—that Iran is surrounded by “powers with nuclear weapons,” including “the Israelis to the west.” Former President Jimmy Carter said so in 2008 and again this year, in interviews and speeches in which he pegged the number of Israel’s nuclear warheads at 150 to around 300.
- tcoppi 10y ago
  Was it ever implied or said that his account was breached? It seems more likely that they are coming from the accounts of recipients at the DNC, based on the context of the article.
  - ceejayoz 10y ago
    > It seems more likely that they are coming from the accounts of recipients at the DNC, based on the context of the article. Condoleezza Rice is definitely not a member of the DNC. https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/colin-powell-called-benghazi-a-stupid-witch-hunt-and-condi-r https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/colin-powell-called...
    - tcoppi 10y ago
      Thanks, I hadn't seen that. If it is true then it is more likely someone breached his email rather than these simply coming from hacks of the DNC.
thieving_magpie 10y ago
I think what's far more interesting is his dismissive attitude toward Iran possessing a nuclear weapon. How would they test it? What would they do, polish it? It puts the Iranian nuclear deal in an interesting context. As for Israel possessing 200 nukes, I'm sure that surprises no one. Yeah they don't publicly address it but anyone remotely familiar with their foreign policy would have known this for some time.
- finid 10y ago
  That Israel has about 200 nukes has been public knowledge for about 2 decades.
  - fit2rule 10y ago
    That they have them is not a question. Where they are, is another thing entirely. Mossad operate the worlds greatest border infiltration teams, and operates the widest network of smugglers of any nation. Most of Israels' nuclear arsenal is man-portable. Israel is under no obligation to report anything about its nuclear arsenal.
    - MrBuddyCasino 10y ago
      > Most of Israels' nuclear arsenal is man-portable. Do you have a source for that?
      - fit2rule 10y ago
        >Do you have a source for that? Mordechai Vanunu.
- 0xcde4c3db 10y ago
  Maybe they (edit: meaning Iran, not Israel) can't practically detonate a device because it would be detected and bring swift retaliation?
  - 10y ago
jkot 10y ago
I am more worried about Saudi Arabia. It paid a lot of money to Pakistan.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
GirlsCanCode 10y ago
Have they ever threatened anyone with them? No. There's the difference. They're purely defensive. I wish Hacker News could do something more useful than single out Israel for trying to exist.
ythl 10y ago
I'm tolerant of Edward Snowden-related politics on HN, but this just appears to be straight up politics with little/nothing related to tech.
- tantalor 10y ago
  You are right, Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - ceejayoz 10y ago
    Read a little further. > Please don't submit comments complaining that a submission is inappropriate for the site. If you think a story is spam or off-topic, flag it by clicking on its 'flag' link.
nxzero 10y ago
This is not news, here's a report from 2007 covering the topic in detail: https://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/ https://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/ ("Updated 2007" is in the footer of the page.)
DanielBMarkham 10y ago
Colin Powell has to be one of the few people who has had their privacy invaded and has come out looking better because of it. It's a very strange cultural thing going on with this hack. I've read three articles about the hack, and depending on the political views of the author, Colin agrees with him. If the author doesn't like Trump? Colin said some bad things about him. If the author doesn't like Clinton? Same thing. Of course, I'm sure the reality is that he was frank and biting about all of them, but the reporting on this leak is like an exercise in propaganda -- find something true that demoralizes the other guys, then publish it. I feel sorry the guy got robbed, and I hope they catch whoever did it, but I'm not holding my breath.
feltmind 10y ago
Israel prosecuted one its citizens for disclosing this type of information in the 1980s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu
- contingencies 10y ago
  They didn't just prosecute him - they illegally abducted him from Australia, dragged him back to Israel, locked him in prison and threw away the key.
  - cema 10y ago
    Italy, not Australia. Released in 2004 (according to Wikipedia, did not dig further).
    - contingencies 10y ago
      He was abducted via honeytrap from Sydney, but physically overpowered and drugged once in Rome. Your comment implies he is free. He spent 18 years in prison, including more than 11 in solitary confinement, and while 'released' is apparently surveilled, subject to a lot of restrictions and forced to stay in Israel. he shall not be able to have contacts with foreigners his telephone and Internet use shall be monitored he shall not enter Internet chat rooms he shall not own cellular phones he shall not approach or enter embassies and consulates he shall not come within 500 meters of any international border crossing he shall not visit any port of entry into Israel he shall not leave Israel
      - cema 10y ago
        My comment does not imply that.
  - saiya-jin 10y ago
    sounds quite Israelish... or when they killed genius ammunition inventor Gerard Bull in Brussels for cooperating with Saddam when he was still cool with US. sometimes when they decide to kill/abduct people around the world ignoring any international laws it makes at least a bit of sense (holocaust perpetrators), sometimes a bit less...
YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago
I wonder if this was "hacked" (as in, leaked) as some kind of warning to Iran, perhaps following one of those diplomatic incidents that never make it to the popular press. Not that it's very productive to wonder this sort of thing, since I don't have any way to know what's up, but I can't help to wonder anyway.
durzagott 10y ago
Is there any speculation as to where Israel got it's nukes? Did they develop them independently? If so where did they test them anyway? For what it's worth, I think Colin Powell is right: Iran doesn't want to develop nukes as an offensive weapon. What they really want is a seat at the grown-up table and to prevent regime change being imposed on them.
AKifer 10y ago
An interesting engineering question that needs to be raised is, given no known nuclear test conducted by Israel, how do they know about the reliability of their design ? Assuming they built the warheads by themselves. Did they use foreign blueprints ? Or did foreign countries tested their weapons under their [the foreign country's] official program ? Or do they have access to advanced computation models [which is less probable given they had these weapons since the 70s]
- dingaling 10y ago
  They are believed ti have tested at least once, in the South Atlantic in 1979.

92 points by uptown 10y ago

I'm pretty sure everybody assumes they've got nukes already. It's an open secret. Whether it's 100 or 200 at home doesn't really change much either.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
agumonkey 10y ago
What worries me a bit is Isreal is a bit trigger sensitive and prone to throw stuff defensively. I hope they never reach nuclear level anxiety.
- fit2rule 10y ago
  More worrying is the fact that Israel considers its secret nuclear arsenal to be a primary motivating force when dealing with its relations with Western nations. The 'Goliath' program has a very, very sinister purpose: to hold the world ransom with nuclear deterrents, such that Israel gets its way no matter what.
  - cema 10y ago
    This is becoming dangerously political. You think it is the fact, I think it is the opposite of the fact; not a good dialogue.
  - agumonkey 10y ago
    That's the only field use for Nukes anyway right ? Every country wants it as big muscle to show up to other neighbors in negotiations. I'm curious if the 200 count is growing or if it's only remains of the post WW2 nuclear spread.
- cema 10y ago
  I think the history of the state of Israel shows it is much less than trigger sensitive.
  - agumonkey 10y ago
    Could you go on ? from my perspective Israel has always spread the notion that it's surrounded by predator states, justifying the constant expansion has a protective means.
    - cema 10y ago
      I could, but first we would need to see where our common points are. For instance, you mentioned "the constant expansion": how is that consistent with the Camp David accord, Oslo accords, the removal of the Gaza settlements?

danso 10y ago

While I think the subject of Powell's email getting hacked is very interesting -- he's admitted to the hack but have we learned any technical details regarding how his GMail account was breached? -- this doesn't appear to be a very newsworthy insight. First of all, he's not writing as a Secretary of State, so the number "200" could be conjecture, he certainly doesn't seem to be making an appeal to authority, i.e. "When I was at State, Israel told us etc etc etc". Who are the "boys in Tehran" who know that Israel has 200? CIA spies? The negotiators? Diplomats? Meanwhile, President Carter has been giving speeches and interviews about this for years: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/israel-nuclear-weapons-secret-united-states/380237/ http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/isr... > Former CIA Director Robert Gates said so during his 2006 Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of defense, when he noted—while serving as a university president—that Iran is surrounded by “powers with nuclear weapons,” including “the Israelis to the west.” Former President Jimmy Carter said so in 2008 and again this year, in interviews and speeches in which he pegged the number of Israel’s nuclear warheads at 150 to around 300.

tcoppi 10y ago
Was it ever implied or said that his account was breached? It seems more likely that they are coming from the accounts of recipients at the DNC, based on the context of the article.
- ceejayoz 10y ago
  > It seems more likely that they are coming from the accounts of recipients at the DNC, based on the context of the article. Condoleezza Rice is definitely not a member of the DNC. https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/colin-powell-called-benghazi-a-stupid-witch-hunt-and-condi-r https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/colin-powell-called...
  - tcoppi 10y ago
    Thanks, I hadn't seen that. If it is true then it is more likely someone breached his email rather than these simply coming from hacks of the DNC.

thieving_magpie 10y ago

I think what's far more interesting is his dismissive attitude toward Iran possessing a nuclear weapon. How would they test it? What would they do, polish it? It puts the Iranian nuclear deal in an interesting context. As for Israel possessing 200 nukes, I'm sure that surprises no one. Yeah they don't publicly address it but anyone remotely familiar with their foreign policy would have known this for some time.

finid 10y ago
That Israel has about 200 nukes has been public knowledge for about 2 decades.
- fit2rule 10y ago
  That they have them is not a question. Where they are, is another thing entirely. Mossad operate the worlds greatest border infiltration teams, and operates the widest network of smugglers of any nation. Most of Israels' nuclear arsenal is man-portable. Israel is under no obligation to report anything about its nuclear arsenal.
  - MrBuddyCasino 10y ago
    > Most of Israels' nuclear arsenal is man-portable. Do you have a source for that?
    - fit2rule 10y ago
      >Do you have a source for that? Mordechai Vanunu.
0xcde4c3db 10y ago
Maybe they (edit: meaning Iran, not Israel) can't practically detonate a device because it would be detected and bring swift retaliation?
- 10y ago

jkot 10y ago

I am more worried about Saudi Arabia. It paid a lot of money to Pakistan.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

GirlsCanCode 10y ago

Have they ever threatened anyone with them? No. There's the difference. They're purely defensive. I wish Hacker News could do something more useful than single out Israel for trying to exist.

ythl 10y ago

I'm tolerant of Edward Snowden-related politics on HN, but this just appears to be straight up politics with little/nothing related to tech.

tantalor 10y ago
You are right, Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- ceejayoz 10y ago
  Read a little further. > Please don't submit comments complaining that a submission is inappropriate for the site. If you think a story is spam or off-topic, flag it by clicking on its 'flag' link.

nxzero 10y ago

This is not news, here's a report from 2007 covering the topic in detail: https://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/ https://fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/ ("Updated 2007" is in the footer of the page.)

DanielBMarkham 10y ago

Colin Powell has to be one of the few people who has had their privacy invaded and has come out looking better because of it. It's a very strange cultural thing going on with this hack. I've read three articles about the hack, and depending on the political views of the author, Colin agrees with him. If the author doesn't like Trump? Colin said some bad things about him. If the author doesn't like Clinton? Same thing. Of course, I'm sure the reality is that he was frank and biting about all of them, but the reporting on this leak is like an exercise in propaganda -- find something true that demoralizes the other guys, then publish it. I feel sorry the guy got robbed, and I hope they catch whoever did it, but I'm not holding my breath.

feltmind 10y ago

Israel prosecuted one its citizens for disclosing this type of information in the 1980s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu

contingencies 10y ago
They didn't just prosecute him - they illegally abducted him from Australia, dragged him back to Israel, locked him in prison and threw away the key.
- cema 10y ago
  Italy, not Australia. Released in 2004 (according to Wikipedia, did not dig further).
  - contingencies 10y ago
    He was abducted via honeytrap from Sydney, but physically overpowered and drugged once in Rome. Your comment implies he is free. He spent 18 years in prison, including more than 11 in solitary confinement, and while 'released' is apparently surveilled, subject to a lot of restrictions and forced to stay in Israel. he shall not be able to have contacts with foreigners his telephone and Internet use shall be monitored he shall not enter Internet chat rooms he shall not own cellular phones he shall not approach or enter embassies and consulates he shall not come within 500 meters of any international border crossing he shall not visit any port of entry into Israel he shall not leave Israel
    - cema 10y ago
      My comment does not imply that.
- saiya-jin 10y ago
  sounds quite Israelish... or when they killed genius ammunition inventor Gerard Bull in Brussels for cooperating with Saddam when he was still cool with US. sometimes when they decide to kill/abduct people around the world ignoring any international laws it makes at least a bit of sense (holocaust perpetrators), sometimes a bit less...

YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago

I wonder if this was "hacked" (as in, leaked) as some kind of warning to Iran, perhaps following one of those diplomatic incidents that never make it to the popular press. Not that it's very productive to wonder this sort of thing, since I don't have any way to know what's up, but I can't help to wonder anyway.

durzagott 10y ago

Is there any speculation as to where Israel got it's nukes? Did they develop them independently? If so where did they test them anyway? For what it's worth, I think Colin Powell is right: Iran doesn't want to develop nukes as an offensive weapon. What they really want is a seat at the grown-up table and to prevent regime change being imposed on them.

AKifer 10y ago

An interesting engineering question that needs to be raised is, given no known nuclear test conducted by Israel, how do they know about the reliability of their design ? Assuming they built the warheads by themselves. Did they use foreign blueprints ? Or did foreign countries tested their weapons under their [the foreign country's] official program ? Or do they have access to advanced computation models [which is less probable given they had these weapons since the 70s]

dingaling 10y ago
They are believed ti have tested at least once, in the South Atlantic in 1979.