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Could you share a reference for "Batteries are now cheaper than peakers everywhere"

by itissid 10y ago

toomuchtodo 10y ago
Bookmarked to come back to show my math in the morning. The gist is they can absorb power at a cost that is pretty close to free (when there is excess power flowing through the grid) versus burning a fuel whose price is volatile, a steep declining cost curve for batteries, and aggressive federal government tax incentives.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >aggressive federal government tax incentives. I'm not sure that should be included in the cost analysis, otherwise anything can be subsidized to the point of being "cheaper".
  - mikeash 10y ago
    That's entirely fair, but then we should also include the full costs of peak power, including all the externalities due to emissions and such that the utilities don't currently have to pay for.
andrewtbham 10y ago
The cost of batteries is falling at a current rate of 16% per year and it's accelerating. As such, battery storage will become increasingly competitive with peaker plants. "From around 1995 through 2010, energy storage costs had fallen by about 14% a year – a rate that means the price will halve in a little more than five years. In 2010 – that rate sped up to 16% a year, and while a 2% increase might seem small it actually means that instead of taking five+ years to halve – it would now take slightly less than four years, more than 20% faster. Tesla’s Gigafactory has now increased the rate of price decrease even faster than the 16%. It is estimated that the Gigafactory, by doing nothing more than moving all of the supply chain arms under a single roof, has decreased the price of battery packs by 30-50% – while doubling the global volume." https://electrek.co/2016/05/19/the-math-and-evidence-all-around-you-that-shows-shared-autonomous-vehicles-powered-by-solar-power-and-batteries-are-inevitable/ https://electrek.co/2016/05/19/the-math-and-evidence-all-aro... JB Staubel has indicated the same... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgcozueYXMU&feature=youtu.be&t=287 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgcozueYXMU&feature=youtu.be...
andrewtbham 10y ago
btw, the price recently dropped on powerpack by 5% and 19% on inverters. https://electrek.co/2016/09/09/tesla-quietly-reduced-the-price-of-the-powerpack-by-5-and-its-commercial-inverter-by-19/ https://electrek.co/2016/09/09/tesla-quietly-reduced-the-pri... "At the time, the Powerpack was being quoted at $470/kWh, but now we learned that Tesla brought the price down to $445/kWh." Incidentally Goldman sachs estimates the cost to be around $200/kWh back in February. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:n5WQK1Ac2r4J:www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/tesla-stock-rallies-after-tough-couple-of-weeks/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:n5WQK1A...

Could you share a reference for "Batteries are now cheaper than peakers everywhere"

by itissid 10y ago

Could you share a reference for "Batteries are now cheaper than peakers everywhere"

Bookmarked to come back to show my math in the morning. The gist is they can absorb power at a cost that is pretty close to free (when there is excess power flowing through the grid) versus burning a fuel whose price is volatile, a steep declining cost curve for batteries, and aggressive federal government tax incentives.

forgetsusername 10y ago
>aggressive federal government tax incentives. I'm not sure that should be included in the cost analysis, otherwise anything can be subsidized to the point of being "cheaper".
- mikeash 10y ago
  That's entirely fair, but then we should also include the full costs of peak power, including all the externalities due to emissions and such that the utilities don't currently have to pay for.

andrewtbham 10y ago

The cost of batteries is falling at a current rate of 16% per year and it's accelerating. As such, battery storage will become increasingly competitive with peaker plants. "From around 1995 through 2010, energy storage costs had fallen by about 14% a year – a rate that means the price will halve in a little more than five years. In 2010 – that rate sped up to 16% a year, and while a 2% increase might seem small it actually means that instead of taking five+ years to halve – it would now take slightly less than four years, more than 20% faster. Tesla’s Gigafactory has now increased the rate of price decrease even faster than the 16%. It is estimated that the Gigafactory, by doing nothing more than moving all of the supply chain arms under a single roof, has decreased the price of battery packs by 30-50% – while doubling the global volume." https://electrek.co/2016/05/19/the-math-and-evidence-all-around-you-that-shows-shared-autonomous-vehicles-powered-by-solar-power-and-batteries-are-inevitable/ https://electrek.co/2016/05/19/the-math-and-evidence-all-aro... JB Staubel has indicated the same... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgcozueYXMU&feature=youtu.be&t=287 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgcozueYXMU&feature=youtu.be...

andrewtbham 10y ago

btw, the price recently dropped on powerpack by 5% and 19% on inverters. https://electrek.co/2016/09/09/tesla-quietly-reduced-the-price-of-the-powerpack-by-5-and-its-commercial-inverter-by-19/ https://electrek.co/2016/09/09/tesla-quietly-reduced-the-pri... "At the time, the Powerpack was being quoted at $470/kWh, but now we learned that Tesla brought the price down to $445/kWh." Incidentally Goldman sachs estimates the cost to be around $200/kWh back in February. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:n5WQK1Ac2r4J:www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/tesla-stock-rallies-after-tough-couple-of-weeks/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:n5WQK1A...