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I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book: That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is litera
by thr0waway1239 10y ago
I ask as someone who is vaguely familiar with Taleb's ideas but didn't read the book:
That is a really fascinating point, especially considering this is literally a case where you are "betting your (future) life" on the low probability outcome event.
I mean, what is your hedge in that case? Does Taleb talk about that too?
- piedradura 10y agoThe problem with low probability outcome events is that when you repeat the same experiment many times that event can happen with high probability.
- metaphorm 10y agoI think you should just read the book(s). They're very well written and enlightening.
- tim333 10y agoI guess a hedge in that case would be to try to arrange things so they come out OK if you miss the goal. Like if you want to be president aim for the fail case being a successful lesser politician. Not sure what Taleb says.
- spaceknarf 10y agoTaleb investment advice: put almost all of your savings in super stable investments, like treasuries. Use the rest to bet on unicorn startups, or highly leveraged options (as long as those options have a limited downside and an unlimited upside!). I'm not quite sure how to apply this to one's career.