At a broad level, you're correct: prisoners like Saeed are often pawns in a wider geopolitical game (in fact, there's an upcoming documentary on this aspect com

At a broad level, you're correct: prisoners like Saeed are often pawns in a wider geopolitical game (in fact, there's an upcoming documentary on this aspect coming out soon, which includes a detailed look at Saeed's case: https://www.facebook.com/filmcheckmate/ https://www.facebook.com/filmcheckmate/ ). However, these negotiations don't work at such a dramatic level as you suggest. For instance, Saeed was originally sentenced to death, but the sentence was commuted to life following external pressure. Mostafa Azizi, the Canadian filmmaker, was released in April. Canada frequently makes strong protestations to Iran, and is currently in the middle of debating whether to restore diplomatic relations with the country. The fate of Canadian prisoners in Iran is clearly tied up with this, including that of Homa Hoodfar, who was arrested earlier this year. While I can't predict what the results of those negotiations would be, whether Saeed is included in the names of prisoners being discussed would have a relatively marginal effect on the cost to either Iran or Canada. What's disturbing is that the previous Canadian government appeared to include Saeed in that equation, whereas Stephane Dion has implied that the new government does not. (The other point I'd make is that the Iranian government, like most governments, is not a monolithic organisation. In particular, the parts of the political administration attempting to improve trade and diplomatic relations with the West is not the part that targeted and sentenced Saeed. Much of the real negotiations and power dynamics are internal to Iran. But that can be positive as well as negative. My impression is that Saeed's detention has served its political purpose for the more strident groups. I don't think, at this stage, years after the original prosecution, that releasing him would be an immense loss of face.