3 ms·

>Justin Trudeau Can Restore Saeed's Freedom No he can't. If the reasons for Saeed's arrest are truly as said in the article, it would be immense loss of face t

by vlehto 10y ago

>Justin Trudeau Can Restore Saeed's Freedom No he can't. If the reasons for Saeed's arrest are truly as said in the article, it would be immense loss of face to any Iranian politicians to release him. So they won't. If Trudeau does anything to this stuff, there are three options: 1. Give up and lose face yourself. 2. Threaten Iran and lose public image of Canada as the do-good nice guy. 3. Exchange Saeed to something valuable. This would paint Saeed as spy and would save face of everybody involved in that regard. What would be sweet enough for Iran? What Canada has to offer? Lifting trade sanctions prematurely or offering nuclear goods and ballistic missile designs. This would in turn make every ally of Canada pretty mad.

dannyobrien 10y ago
At a broad level, you're correct: prisoners like Saeed are often pawns in a wider geopolitical game (in fact, there's an upcoming documentary on this aspect coming out soon, which includes a detailed look at Saeed's case: https://www.facebook.com/filmcheckmate/ https://www.facebook.com/filmcheckmate/ ). However, these negotiations don't work at such a dramatic level as you suggest. For instance, Saeed was originally sentenced to death, but the sentence was commuted to life following external pressure. Mostafa Azizi, the Canadian filmmaker, was released in April. Canada frequently makes strong protestations to Iran, and is currently in the middle of debating whether to restore diplomatic relations with the country. The fate of Canadian prisoners in Iran is clearly tied up with this, including that of Homa Hoodfar, who was arrested earlier this year. While I can't predict what the results of those negotiations would be, whether Saeed is included in the names of prisoners being discussed would have a relatively marginal effect on the cost to either Iran or Canada. What's disturbing is that the previous Canadian government appeared to include Saeed in that equation, whereas Stephane Dion has implied that the new government does not. (The other point I'd make is that the Iranian government, like most governments, is not a monolithic organisation. In particular, the parts of the political administration attempting to improve trade and diplomatic relations with the West is not the part that targeted and sentenced Saeed. Much of the real negotiations and power dynamics are internal to Iran. But that can be positive as well as negative. My impression is that Saeed's detention has served its political purpose for the more strident groups. I don't think, at this stage, years after the original prosecution, that releasing him would be an immense loss of face.
- vlehto 10y ago
  Fair points. But still releasing will cost something to Canada. Probably something agreed behind closed doors as a part of package deal. I'm afraid this is one of those cases where you have to trust politicians. Trudeau or some diplomat will have to calculate what solution is good for the big picture and that may require sacrificing individuals.

by vlehto 10y ago

dannyobrien 10y ago

At a broad level, you're correct: prisoners like Saeed are often pawns in a wider geopolitical game (in fact, there's an upcoming documentary on this aspect coming out soon, which includes a detailed look at Saeed's case: https://www.facebook.com/filmcheckmate/ https://www.facebook.com/filmcheckmate/ ). However, these negotiations don't work at such a dramatic level as you suggest. For instance, Saeed was originally sentenced to death, but the sentence was commuted to life following external pressure. Mostafa Azizi, the Canadian filmmaker, was released in April. Canada frequently makes strong protestations to Iran, and is currently in the middle of debating whether to restore diplomatic relations with the country. The fate of Canadian prisoners in Iran is clearly tied up with this, including that of Homa Hoodfar, who was arrested earlier this year. While I can't predict what the results of those negotiations would be, whether Saeed is included in the names of prisoners being discussed would have a relatively marginal effect on the cost to either Iran or Canada. What's disturbing is that the previous Canadian government appeared to include Saeed in that equation, whereas Stephane Dion has implied that the new government does not. (The other point I'd make is that the Iranian government, like most governments, is not a monolithic organisation. In particular, the parts of the political administration attempting to improve trade and diplomatic relations with the West is not the part that targeted and sentenced Saeed. Much of the real negotiations and power dynamics are internal to Iran. But that can be positive as well as negative. My impression is that Saeed's detention has served its political purpose for the more strident groups. I don't think, at this stage, years after the original prosecution, that releasing him would be an immense loss of face.

vlehto 10y ago
Fair points. But still releasing will cost something to Canada. Probably something agreed behind closed doors as a part of package deal. I'm afraid this is one of those cases where you have to trust politicians. Trudeau or some diplomat will have to calculate what solution is good for the big picture and that may require sacrificing individuals.