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Google had come out saying they don't believe that an incremental approach will lead to fully driverless cars; at some point the leap has to be made. Sooner rat

by Fricken 10y ago

Google had come out saying they don't believe that an incremental approach will lead to fully driverless cars; at some point the leap has to be made. Sooner rather than later in Google's case. Given that Google doesn't make cars, I don't really see how they would go about commercializing L3, even though it's well within their capacity from an innovation standpoint. I really don't think they expected the auto industry to respond so aggressively with their own proprietary autonomous driving OSs, determined to shut Google out. At this stage their only option is to get to six sigma level 4 in a way that leaves everyone else scratching their heads wondering how Google did that. It's going to take a lot longer than Google anticipated. Now Google could probably release level 4 quite soon in a limited capacity that's more an amusement park ride than a relable, profitable transportation service, but it's probably smarter for them to keep their eye on the prize and keep plugging away at it. They're in too deep to throw in the towel.

Eridrus 10y ago
The fact that they've said it doesn't mean they're right. But I think most of their statements have actually about how L3 is unsafe, rather than the fact that incremental progress is impossible. Plenty of the startups in this space aren't making cars, but buying cars and installing aftermarket kits. Otto is a great example. Or they could have done what MobileEye did and sell L3 tech to car companies to fund further development. I don't find the auto response particularly aggressive; they've waited 7 years to even start anything. The barrier to entry in that time has gotten so much lower due to deep learning that geohot can build a car that has some level of autonomy in his garage, and I think those advances were what really caught google flatfooted. Can Google keep funding a pie in the sky research project for another 20 years, which is roughly the timeline they've said about L4 autonomy.
- ktRolster 10y ago
  Can Google keep funding a pie in the sky research project for another 20 years, Yes
lallysingh 10y ago
They could just buy Fiat Chrysler. It's like $11 billion. Google's got 64 billion in just short-term cash investments: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGOOG&fstype=ii&ei=PvTWV7HhBM3AesfEiLAM https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGOOG&fstype=ii&ei=...

by Fricken 10y ago

Eridrus 10y ago

The fact that they've said it doesn't mean they're right. But I think most of their statements have actually about how L3 is unsafe, rather than the fact that incremental progress is impossible. Plenty of the startups in this space aren't making cars, but buying cars and installing aftermarket kits. Otto is a great example. Or they could have done what MobileEye did and sell L3 tech to car companies to fund further development. I don't find the auto response particularly aggressive; they've waited 7 years to even start anything. The barrier to entry in that time has gotten so much lower due to deep learning that geohot can build a car that has some level of autonomy in his garage, and I think those advances were what really caught google flatfooted. Can Google keep funding a pie in the sky research project for another 20 years, which is roughly the timeline they've said about L4 autonomy.

ktRolster 10y ago
Can Google keep funding a pie in the sky research project for another 20 years, Yes

lallysingh 10y ago

They could just buy Fiat Chrysler. It's like $11 billion. Google's got 64 billion in just short-term cash investments: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGOOG&fstype=ii&ei=PvTWV7HhBM3AesfEiLAM https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGOOG&fstype=ii&ei=...